Last week the markets were dominated by the US debt ceiling and of course the labor market. As a result of the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes over the past 14 months, most analysts expect the United States to enter a recession in the second half of 2023.
In order to speak of a recession, however, unemployment must rise. It is currently still at the historically low level of 3.4 percent. In that regard, the number of unemployment claims is an important weekly indicator to keep an eye on. Last week, however, it came in surprisingly at 229,000 units, while a total of 245,000 was expected.
But enough about last week. Next week will again be dominated by the US labor market, with the unemployment figures as a climax on Friday.
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Wednesday, May 31
We start on Wednesday with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which is a good representation of the number of open positions in the United States. In principle, there is a reasonable decrease in the number of unfilled vacancies, but not yet enough to speak of significant misery for the labor market.
Thursday June 1
On Thursday, we’ll be a bit fuller on key economic data from the United States, including the NFP Change, the net change in the number of employed people in the United States. Last month, this indicator came in surprisingly high at 296,000 units, while a plus of 148,000 units was expected.
The number of unemployment claims is also coming in. Last week, this metric came in unexpectedly low at 229,000 units, while a score of 245,000 was expected. All in all, we can say that the American labor market still appears to be booming.
Also on Thursday we have the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is basically a reflection of the health of US manufacturing. This indicator is now starting to show real weakness. In principle, any score below 50.0 means that we are heading towards a recession. In principle, this is in line with the expectations of the majority of analysts.
Friday June 2
On Friday we will end with the unemployment figures. Unemployment in the US is currently at 3.4 percent and is expected to rise to 3.5 percent. That is still not nearly enough to call it a recession. In that respect, the US economy is still doing well.
That does not change the fact that interest rates have risen extremely over the past 14 months and the outlook for risk assets is therefore moderate. From a macroeconomic point of view, the situation does not look very promising for bitcoin and crypto in general at the moment.
In that respect, the year 2023 may well be a difficult one and we will probably have to hold our breath until the bitcoin halving from April 2024.
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2023-05-28 18:05:10
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