Russian army probably will not be able to maintain its current intensity on the offensive in Ukraine and is unlikely to advance in 2023.
This was stated by the head of US national intelligence, Avril Haynes, during a hearing in the US Senate, the BBC specified.
“We do not foresee the Russian army to recover sufficiently this yearto achieve major territorial gains,” she said.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin may feel that time is working for him and prolonging the war “may be the best remaining path for him to secure Russian strategic interests in Ukraineeven if it takes years,” the head of American intelligence believes.
According to Haynes, the American intelligence community believes that after a year of war and failure of Russia’s main strategic goals The Kremlin has become more aware of the limitations of Russian forces.
Meanwhile the army suffers losses of personnel and ammunition shortages, which have been exacerbated by international sanctions.
With a decree, Putin pressures companies to fulfill military orders on time
The Russian economy is practically on a wartime foundation
So, according to Haynes, Putin is now probably “focused on more modest military objectives“.
“Unless Russia declares forced mobilization and identifies serious sources of ammunition for itself, its military will find it increasingly difficult to maintains even its current level of offensive operations” Haynes said.
As a result, the main task of the Russian army in eastern Ukraine may turn out to be the retention of the occupied territories, she added.
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