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US Inflation Skyrockets, Prepares for a Taper Tantrum in Front of Eyes?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The stock market moved in the opposite direction to the currency market on Thursday (10/2/2022). Closing the week, the opportunity for correction is wide open amid bad news from the United States (US).

The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) closed down 0.16% (-10.96 points) at 6,823.642. Previously, the JCI moved in the green zone in session I and even had time to set a record high at midday (intraday) latest at 6,874.35.

However, an hour before closing, the JCI slid into the red zone when Asian markets strengthened. Japan’s Nikkei Index led with an appreciation of 0.42%, followed by Hong Kong’s Hang Seng which appreciated 0.38%.

In the last two days, trading looks quite busy. This is reflected in the transaction value which reached Rp 15.46 trillion. Previously, the average daily transaction was only in the range of Rp 12 trillion.

Even though the JCI closed in the red zone, foreign investors continued to buy shares. In the foreign regular market print net purchases (net buy) jumbo of Rp 1.56 trillion. In the current week, foreigners recorded net buy IDR 7.13 trillion in the regular market.

Pressure occurred after Bank Indonesia (BI) announced it would maintain its benchmark interest rate at 3.5%. Thus, the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate has not changed since February 2021 or even a year. This is the lowest benchmark interest rate in Indonesia’s history.

The decision made the bond market move in various ways, indicating that investors in the market are divided in viewing the cash outlook in the short term. This can be seen from the yield (yield) Indonesian government bonds closed varied.

The market is indeed in a state of uncertainty as it awaits the release of inflation data from the United States (US). If inflation is higher than expected, then there is a chance that the US central bank (Federal Reserve/The Fed) will raise its benchmark interest rate more aggressively. This could trigger the attractiveness of developing country bonds, including Indonesia.

The yield on the 10-year SBN fell 0.1 basis points to 6.498%, along with the weakening of the yields for the other three bonds with long tenors (20, 25 and 30 years).

The other four series of benchmark bonds strengthened, of which the majority were short tenor bonds (1, 3, and 5 years). Only one long tenor bond strengthened, namely the 15-year tenor.

In the forex market, the opposite occurs. The Rupiah actually managed to strengthen against the United States (US) dollar hat-trick aka strengthening 3 days in a row. Although the strengthening was not too big, the rupiah was runner up in Asia yesterday, following the Thai bath which strengthened 0.18%.

According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah opened trading by strengthening 0.07% to Rp. 14,345/US$. Had up 0.21%, the rupiah finally ended trading at Rp 14,340/US$.

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