US Energy Information Administration Raises 2023 Oil Demand Forecast and Boosts Non-OPEC Supply Expectations

The US Energy Information Administration raised oil demand forecasts for the current year (2023), but lowered its estimates for the next year, while it boosted supply expectations from non-OPEC countries during the same year, in response to the decisions of the OPEC + alliance to extend the production cut policy until the end of 2024, as well as Voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and 8 other countries.

Report showed Energy prospects Short-term report for the month of June 2023 – issued today, Tuesday, June 6 – that the global demand for oil may grow by 1.59 million barrels per day during 2023, compared to previous estimates for the month of May, which amounted to 1.56 million barrels per day.

Most of the expected growth is expected to come from non-OECD countries, led by China, although economic concerns in developed countries cast doubt on the outlook, according to the report, which was tracked by the Energy Research Unit.

Oil demand forecast

Total oil demand in 2023 is likely to grow to 101.01 million barrels per day during the current year (2023), compared to the previous estimate of 100.99 million barrels per day.

Next year (2024), the Energy Information Administration lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth to 1.70 million barrels per day, compared to a previous estimate of 1.72 million barrels per day.

It is expected that the demand for oil in China will rise to 15.95 million barrels per day this year, compared to 15.15 million barrels per day in 2022, with estimates that it will continue to rise to 16.35 million next year (2024).

According to the report, global oil demand grew by about 2.30 million barrels per day over the past year, bringing the total to 99.42 million barrels per day.

Supply from outside OPEC

Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow to 2.17 million barrels per day in 2023, compared to a growth of 1.89 million previously forecast, according to the report, which was seen by the Energy Research Unit.

This means that the total non-OPEC supply could reach 67.86 million barrels per day in 2023, compared to 65.58 million the previous year.

It is scheduled that the producing countries outside OPEC – led by the United States, Norway and Canada – will increase production, after the OPEC + alliance announced the extension of the supply reduction policy until the end of next year, in addition to voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and 8 other countries from the alliance.

The graphic below – prepared by the Energy Research Unit – shows the production shares of the OPEC + countries in 2024:

On the other hand, the Energy Information Administration’s expectations for non-OPEC supply growth during 2024 did not change, to settle at 0.99 million barrels per day.

related topics..

Also read..