US Job Market Expected to Rebound in November After Hurricane Hit
Analysts are predicting a strong rebound in the US job market for November, following a sluggish October hampered by hurricanes and major strikes.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate a surge of 200,000 new jobs added last month, pushing back against the 139,000 reported in October. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain steady at 4.1%. This positive outlook comes as the Union-Boeing strike ended, and recovery efforts intensified in hurricane-ravaged areas like the southern United States.
“November’s earnings report is likely to be better than October’s, but October’s weakness appears to have been entirely due to temporary factors," stated Anna Wong of Bloomberg Economics, along with her colleagues. Wong cautioned, however, that "The recovery is unlikely to be strong. The current trend in employment growth appears to be below the level needed to stabilize the unemployment rate, and the rate is still expected to reach 4.5% before the end of the year.”
**
Hints from the Fed:**
On December 4th, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a debate, with investors eagerly anticipating clues about the Fed’s perspective on the labor market, inflation, and a potential December rate cut.
**
Wider Economic Indicators on the Horizon:**
Before the employment statistics are released, several key economic indicators will emerge. Data on job openings, the Institute for Supply Management’s economic indicators for manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, and the Federal Reserve’s Economic Report (Beige Book) will all be made public this week.
The Fed’s schedule is also packed. This week, Director Waller will deliver a speech. Joining him will be New York Fed President Williams, St. Louis Fed President Moussalem, Fed Director Kugler, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Hammack, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Daley, Chicago Fed President Goolsby, and Federal Reserve Director Bowman. These presentations will offer more insight into the Fed’s thinking on the US economy.
US employment seen rebounding after Hurricanes, Strike
Three-month average job growth consistent with changing labor market
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg
Despite the anticipated November job growth, concerns about a broader slowdown remain. The steady decline in job openings, slower wage growth, and recent layoffs at Boeing and planned cuts at General Motors suggest a softening in the overall labor market landscape.
2024-12-01 06:17:00
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