With the US election looming, the outcome scenarios are naturally give and take, with the two gladiators looking for their own path to the coveted number of 270 electors that will secure them victory. But there is also a special scenario, which cannot be ruled out this year, as the electoral “battle” looks particularly ambiguous, that of a tie.
For there to be a tie in the electoral college, which consists of 538 members, the result would have to be 269-269. What are the possible combinations that could lead to this particular result? In fact, there are quite a few, but only four are considered realistic, based on polling data a few days before the polls.
These four scenarios therefore concern different combinations of the distribution of only the so-called swing states, i.e. the states that are electorally contested by both candidates and which in this electoral contest are seven: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.
The scenarios that lead to the draw
Scenario one:
The first of the scenarios that will lead to an absolute tie in the electoral college is the one in which Kamala Harris holds the so-called “blue wall” of the north (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), while at the same time Donald Trump prevails in his contested states south (Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia).
In this case, the key to a possible tie is the outcome in Nebraska’s second district, in which Kamala Harris is leading in the polls. However, if Donald Trump succeeds in overturning this result, then there will be a tie.
It is recalled that two US states, Nebraska (a total of 5 electors) and Maine (a total of 2 electors) do not give all the electors to one candidate but are divided into districts, 4 for Nebraska and 2 for Maine. Right now in Nebraska the most likely outcome is 4 electors for Trump and 1 for Harris, while in Maine the most likely outcome is 1-1.
Scenario Two:
The second scenario that leads to a tie in terms of the number of electors is one in which Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, while on the other hand Donald Trump prevails in Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina .
Scenario Three:
The third scenario is almost the same as the second, with the only difference being that North Carolina and Georgia change hands and are painted blue and red respectively. But both states have the same number of electors, sixteen, with the result that the distribution of electors remains the same.
Scenario Four:
Fourth and last scenario among the possible distribution of the so-called swing states, that is, the states that are electorally contested by both candidates, which leads to a tie, is the one in which Kamala Harris prevails in the Southern States, except for Nevada (Arizona, Georgia , North Carolina) and Donald Trump in the three northern states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) and Nevada.
What is predicted to happen in the event of a tie?
If one of the above scenarios comes to fruition on election night on November 5, then the planet’s oldest democracy will be faced with a situation it has been in since 1837, almost 200 years ago: None of the candidates he will not have received the “magic” number of 270 electors that gives the ticket to the White House.
In this case the United States constitution is clear. According to his 12th amendment, if no candidate receives 270 electors, then the House of Representatives, which will be sworn in on January 3rd, will elect the president three days later, on January 6th. As for the vice president, he will be elected by the Senate.
So, it is not excluded, if the House of Representatives is controlled by one party and the Senate by another, that either Kamala Harris is elected president, with Republican Jay D. Vance as vice president, or that Donald Trump is sworn in as president with a Democratic vice president, Tim Walsh.
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