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Published on: 03/11/2020 14:45
Joe Biden is expected to win the election, but it remains a one in ten chance that it is Donald Trump to return to the White House, a percentage that “must be taken seriously”. “This is not the time to take anything for granted”. The latest poll on the outcome of the US elections was published in the early hours of this morning by Nate Silver on the pages of his FiveThirtyEight blog.
The poll anticipates a “thin line” to separate the possibility that the Democratic candidate will win by an avalanche of votes (he is the candidate with the greatest margin of victory in national polls since the days of Bill Clinton in 1996, ed. .) or instead on the woolen thread.
Democrats should win the Senate majority with 75 percent of the odds. and the Chamber will probably remain under dem control, with indeed a few more seats than now. As a whole, the electorate favors the Democrats, who, with 72 percent of the probability, will be able to control the White House, the House and the Senate. There is however the possibility of a statistical error related to each different state. “To win Trump needs the statistical error to be much greater than normal.”
If it weren’t for the beating of pollsters in 2016, everyone would now award the win to Biden. On top of it all, some of the dynamics that allowed Trump to win in 2016 don’t seem to be present today (there are far fewer undecided, polls have been much more stable this year than four years ago, and there hasn’t been any an event comparable to the announcement to Congress by then FBI Director James Comey about the new elements in the mailgate inquiry against Hillary.
Pennsylvania is the state that is most likely to decide the final outcome of the elections. In Pennsylvania, Biden is five points ahead of Trump, which is not the margin the Democratic candidate would want. While the 270 electors who need to win tonight won’t be assigned right away, it will be possible to predict depending on how close the two will be in some battleground states. More than on the news, this night too the focus will be on statistics.
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