LAS VEGAS (NEVADA) I don’t know if the last great tenacious mobilization of the American vote, as I have seen in the last few days here at Eastern Las VegasNevada, one of the 7 “swing states”, could change the outcome of today’s vote for the American Presidency. Those who participate certainly believe it. He understands that the difference between who wins or loses could be determined by a handful of votes. This is why the enormous size of the democrats’ mobilization for Harris: a million people knocking house to house across the nation. For this reason, the passion, the participation of everyone, from modest people to billionaires, all determined to be part of this new great and dramatic, polarizing adventure for the American democracy. And if the Democrats follow the door-to-door tradition to mobilize the vote, the Republicans aim for more targeted pockets of votes and rely on the PACs, on pressure groups that do the mobilization work to proxy on very precise, planned demographic objectives, with the participation of 40,000 people.
INSIGHTS
The comparison
In any case, this long-distance comparison, this different mobilization (which will also make history!) give us the measure of how much the 2024 presidential elections are felt on an emotional level, by a population split in two, one half <a href="http://www.world-today-news.com/donald-trump-whats-behind-the-us-presidents-baltimore-attack/" title="Donald Trump: What's behind the US President's Baltimore attack”>Kamala Harristhe other for Donald Trump. Also because it is now clear that tonight will end anyway, when the polls are closed and the counts are completed (even if much more time could pass) there will be a historic turning point for the United States of America: on the one hand the first woman to be president who will generically maintain the status quo, despite his promises of change. On the other Donald Trump with its threats to forever change the benevolent face of American democracy.
The democratic mobilization action, the most traditional one, is called “canvassing“, a real door-to-door “weaving”. In Eastern Las Vegas they are on the corner of Hubbard Street with Halbert Streeta popular Hispanic neighborhood in the city of gambling, of sin, of cheap divorce, of kitsch so extreme that it becomes a work of art. Aside from the Harris campaign volunteers, who welcomed me as a journalist to participate in their mission, the intersection but I would say the entire neighborhood is deserted. My teammate’s name is Oliver, he came from out of state for the weekend. On the street it is 33 degrees at midday. People are locked in their homes in front of the television with the air conditioning on full blast. They are terraced houses, all the same, dignified, inhabited by people with medium-low incomes. In the front courtyard of the first house there is a Harley Davidson new, beautiful, flame red tank with yellow decorations. It stands out as a symbol of the well-being in which this nation finds itself despite inflation and general discontent. Behind the motorbike there are a couple of metal rubbish bins, two dying, semi-abandoned plants in broken pots, uneven pavement, an empty drying rack, a red plastic petrol container, greasy and dirty. The rest is similar for another 50 villas to visit. Every now and then you hear a dog growling furiously, no one speaks English, many say they are illegal immigrants without the right to vote.
Only here, in Nevada, the mission of those who support Harris is to reach 100,000 homes with the mobilization of a few thousand volunteers and a few hundred staff, also well paid. A richer and therefore more powerful, organized machine than Trump’s. Which extended to the other six key states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina for a total mobilization of over 800,000 possible voters by an army of 63,000 volunteers. The other 200,000 voters to be ferreted out are scattered in states that are safe for the presidency, but uncertain for the House or Senate. In fact, let’s remember that today we vote for everything, the Presidency, the entire House and a third of the Senate. On Long Island, for example, New York State, for the district of Suffolk County runs John Avalon for a Democratic seat in the House and Democratic canvassing is only a function of his victory. As we have seen, Trump is instead aiming for external machines to focus on the few thousand he will need to make a difference in the “swing states”. Not only that, he also aims to conquer, so far successfully, the so-called “media cycle”: if he drives a garbage truck, as he has done, it makes the news. A sector in which Harris is unable to keep up with him.
Il canvassing
But it’s the canvassing Presidential (propaganda) that counts: each state expresses a certain number of electors for a total of 538. In order to win, Harris or Trump will have to establish themselves in a number of states that overall express at least 270 electors, half plus one. California, the largest, with 40 million inhabitants, casts 56 electoral votes, which will certainly go to Harris. Texas, 30 million inhabitants, expresses 40 who will certainly go to Trump. Overall, each of the two candidates has approximately 222 electoral votes. And here the seven uncertain states come into play, Nevada (6 electors) Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) North Carolina (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) Georgia (16) for a total of 93 votes which are still missing. And it is there that the battle takes place between Democratic canvassing and Republican targeted action to win the majority of those 93 electors.
Yesterday afternoon, Monday, the final count for the Nevada gave mission accomplished: the volunteers had knocked on the desired 100,000 doors. They did this using a national App called Minivan and which allows you to read the composition of the family unit and the political orientation of each family. Sometimes the data is wrong but you can directly take note of the new names and thus update the democratic database in real time.
And since, literally, the Presidency could be played out on a handful of thousands of votes in two or three key states, mobilizing as much as possible becomes essential for victory. On this front, Harris’ machine is much richer, more powerful and organized than Trump’s: it has put together over 2,500 paid election coordinators in 353 offices spread across the country.
In short, a huge effort, both in terms of human and infrastructural investment. At the end of these elections in addition to the name of the winner for the White House in the battle between Harris and Trump, we will know which of the two approaches, the traditional one of Harris’ door-to-door canvassing for everyone or the less orthodox one of Trump, will have allowed their candidate to play the winning card and, however it ends up, to turn a corner page in the history of this nation, leader of the West.
