Athens is watching the final days of the US election race and is waiting for the result on November 5, so that it can proceed, if necessary, with the necessary adjustments to its already close cooperation with Washington.
High-ranking diplomatic sources report and assure that during the last few months the Greek government has cultivated contacts and relationships of trust at all levels with the staffs of the Democrats and the Republicans and according to information the Minister of Foreign Affairs himself George Gerapetritis he is in constant communication with associates of both candidates for the US presidency. Moreover, he himself Kyriakos Mitsotakis has repeatedly shown in his public statements that the mood of cooperation with the US is not determined by the person who will be in the Oval Office from the beginning of 2025.
No surprises, an election of Kamala Harris
In an obvious way, however, an eventual election of her Kamala Harris it will not be a harbinger of many big surprises. Government policy Biden will continue and with any changes in persons and groups the strategic relationship with Greece will remain on track.
However, the developments in the wider fields and fronts, mainly in Ukraine and the Middle East, may initiate developments in the geopolitical field and indirectly affect our country.
The most critical parameter, beyond the bilateral relations and geopolitical correlations, is the more negotiating approach of the Democrats to the issues of the economy and the multidimensional relationship between the US and the European Union. In this sense, it is important for Athens to maintain Euro-American communication and discussion as smoothly as possible, as the overturning of balances, a trade war and a possible economic and monetary disturbance in Europe will have inevitable effects on the Greek economy as well.
The Greek government maintains communication channels with his staff as well Donald Trumpnevertheless, a possible return of the former president to the White House is seen as a parameter that in many senses will shake the waters and will require other types of manipulations and movements.
In Trump’s “bulletproof”.
As experienced diplomats and military officers point out, a Greek distinctiveness offers the country and the government some important advantages over other allies. It is known, and it has been shown in the past, that Donald Trump has an intolerance towards governments and NATO member states with limited defense spending and little financial contribution to the North Atlantic Alliance. Greece is not such a case; on the contrary, it is still one of the NATO members with the highest defense expenditures, at the levels of 3%-4% of GDP. In this sense, our country is rather in the “fireproof zone”, no matter how wild the moods of the potential president are towards others.
However, the parameter that currently cannot be assessed in absolute terms is the possible chain or collateral consequences of Trump’s decisions and moves in the geopolitical game. Uncertainty is manifested in particular regarding the development of the war in Ukraine and whether it will end in some way or whether a possible withdrawal of the Americans will mean a greater involvement of the remaining allies, with all that this may entail.
The Greek-Turkish language and the equipment
A critical parameter for Greece in anticipation of the November 5th election result is of course the way in which this will affect the Greek-Turkish relationship. In the past, the privileged Trump-Erdogan relationship was known and, as pointed out, the last major tension in the Aegean was manifested during the last period of Trump’s presidency, in the summer of 2020, while it was preceded by the Euro crisis at the beginning of the same year. However, what is considered a critical element today is the fact that Turkey has turned to the Muslim world to such an extent that it will hardly find American support without terms and conditions.
If there is one area in which high-ranking diplomatic sources are expressing concern in the event of a Donald Trump election victory, it is the “frozen” US-Turkey agreement on the F-35 weapons program.
It is likely that it could be reheated, however, there are critical conditions and basic conditions for such a thing. One of them is the composition of the House and the Senate, for which elections are also being held on November 5. And according to one version, they may be just as crucial and important as the president’s face.
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