The US elections are underway and all the staffs of the two candidates have their eyes on the 7 swing states (Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) that will decide the winner. Our polls indicate that we will witness an election thriller that could last even days as the difference between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump moves to the margin of statistical error.
Trump is close in three states
Decoding the latest figures of the measurements, Good Affairs data analyst Giorgos Trapalis explains to BIMA the reasons why Pennsylvania can mathematically prove to be the “golden” State of this year’s elections.
“Trump appears to be a likely winner in three of the seven swing states, namely Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. With these States the Republicans reach 262 electors and need one more – not Nevada which has only 6 electors – to elect a president”.
As he emphasizes, the difference may be minimal in the three States, but this scenario has increased chances of being confirmed since the trend in favor of Trump has been consolidated in all measurements for about a month.
“Key” Pennsylvania
On the other hand Kamala Harris has gained a narrow lead in Michigan and Wisconsin. “The latter is historically more neutral while the former seems to be closer to the Democrats. These two States tend towards the Democrats but not with the same dynamics as the other three towards the Republicans.
Always based on the above, Pennsylvania is necessary for the Harris Democrats to have hopes of victory, while if Trump wins it, it is unlikely that he will not be the next occupant of the White House. “Democrats have never won an election without Pennsylvania, so if they win it now they will be a sure winner,” he tells us.
The Anthropogeography of Elections
Finally, the characteristics of the voters are also interesting from the measurements. Donald Trump, although a billionaire himself, seems to be resonating by a large margin with mostly rural voters, white voters who haven’t finished college, and people with low incomes. The public that is also rallying around him is older and mostly male voters.
“It’s a change in the public’s attitude compared to the past since we find that people closer to Trump socially and economically are against him. We didn’t see it so much in the past that the Republicans were “hugging” the voters with high incomes”, concludes Mr. Trapalis.
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