The USA is the only country in the world where the person in power is not elected directly by the people but by the Electoral College. This makes the American electoral system more complicated and leads to cases in which the candidate who received the largest percentage nationally has been defeated in the Electoral College and not elected to the White House – it happened in 2016, when Hillary Clinton took almost three million votes more than Donald Trump nationwide but was elected second because he got a majority in the Electoral College.
What about voters?
In the US, each of the 50 States holds its own elections to elect its corresponding electors. The number of electors varies from State to State, depending on its population (based on the last census). In this year’s election, California elects 54 electors while tiny Vermont only 3.
In each State separately, any candidate who receives even one vote more than his opponent in the election wins all the electors of the State. That is, whether he wins by one vote or by 15%, he gets all the electors of the State and the loser none (except in Nebraska and Maine where the commissioners are elected proportionally, that is, he can elect electors and the loser of the popular vote of that particular State, but both are small so have little effect on the overall result in the Electoral College).
After the polls close on the evening of November 5, each State will count the votes and certify the result in that State. At the end of the process, the 538 electors who make up the Electoral College will have been elected. Whichever candidate gets at least 270 electors will be elected to the White House.
When will we know the winner of the election?
Typically the Electoral College will meet in December to elect the president, who will take office in January, but in practice we will know the winner of the election after the November 5 count is complete. Can an elector who goes to the polls on November 5th to vote for one candidate, say Trump, change their mind and vote for Harris in December? In theory, yes – prohibited by law in only 18 States. In practice, whenever it has occurred, the number of “faithless,” as they are called, electors has been small and made no difference to the overall outcome of the Electoral College vote.
Could there be a tie in the Electoral College? In theory, yes since their total number is even (in case of a tie, the president will be elected by a vote in the House of Representatives). In this year’s election, that’s unlikely, as Electoral College polls show.
The “sure”, the polls and the ambivalent States
Based on the polls, Harris has a “certain” 226 electors (from states such as California and New York, in which the Democratic candidate leads by a large margin).
Trump has a “sure” 219 electors from the corresponding “sure” Republican states, such as Texas and Alaska.
This means that this year’s elections will be decided in the remaining states that are undecided, that is, in which neither candidate has a clear lead.
In every election contest for the White House, the swing states are different and their number fluctuates each time. This year there are seven: Pennsylvania (19 voters), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). So everything will be decided by how many of the total 93 electors of these seven ambivalent States will be won by Harris or Trump – to gather 270 electors and be elected to the White House, Harris needs 44 more while Trump 51 ( given that the first has 226 “certain” and the second 219).
So after the polls close late on the night of November 5th, the polls are expected to be verified in the “certainly” Democratic and Republican States, while the whole thriller will be played on who will win the ambivalent States and their voters. Harris leads by 1% or less in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump leads by 1-2% in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, and by less than 1% in Pennsylvania, the most lopsided of the ambivalent States and the most critical since it has the largest number of electors among them.
#Election #Electors #Swing #States #Matter
