US economy continues to give good news and the peso responds with gains

Mexico City. The US retail sales data dispels fears of an economic recession, and the Mexican peso accelerates its gains against the dollar, as Mexico benefits from the growth of its main trading partner, mainly in terms of exports and investment.

At the opening of American markets, the Mexican currency appreciated 0.48 percent, trading at around 18.6909 pesos per dollar. The national currency closed yesterday in the interbank market at 18.8303 units per spot dollar.

Following the publication of U.S. retail sales at the end of July, which showed that consumption in the U.S. economy remains solid, registering a rise of one percent, exceeding the 0.3 percent estimate expected by the market, the Mexican peso accelerated its recovery and is about to have its third consecutive session on the rise.

The rise in consumption in the United States was explained by an increase in products related to vehicles and auto parts, of which Mexico exports more than 90 percent to the United States.

This is despite the fact that the dollar remains strong worldwide, as its DXY index, which measures its performance against a basket of six international currencies, appreciated 0.47 percent, to 102.872 units.

In response, the bond market reinforced its expectation of a 0.25 percentage point cut in the Federal Reserve’s reference rate during the September meeting. The financial market now assigns a 60 percent probability to a move of the same magnitude in the November announcement, described Actinver’s analysis area.

Meanwhile, US stock markets opened higher. The weekly unemployment figure eased somewhat more than expected, to 227,000 weekly jobless claims.

Amid growing confidence in a soft landing for the economy, macroeconomic data released in Asia also had a favourable bias. Japan’s GDP exceeded forecasts, as did China’s retail sales figures.

Japan published its first reading of GDP growth at the end of the second quarter of 2024, which showed a quarterly increase of 0.8 percent, positively surprising the market, which was anticipating an increase of 0.5 percent.

The Nasdaq rose 1.64 percent, the S&P 500 gained 1.07 percent and the Dow Jones gained 0.90 percent.

The Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), for its part, gained 0.26 percent, trading at around 53,875 units.

The Brent barrel has recovered the $80 level after the falls triggered yesterday by the unexpected rise in weekly crude oil inventories in the United States, with a gain of 1.20 percent. The West Texas barrel, meanwhile, is trading at $77, with a gain of 1.08 percent.