Economic Highlight
Market players will be waiting for important US economic data reports such as the ISM PMI index for the manufacturing and service sectors. Including the total of non-agricultural employment (Nonfarm Payrolls) and following the statements of key central bank officials.
**Gold price = COMEX gold contract for delivery in December.
FX Highlight
last week The dollar continues to be supported by financial markets’ risk appetite. and concerns about the Fed’s tendency to maintain high interest rates for a long time (Higher for Longer). However, we estimate that The dollar’s rally may begin to narrow. And there is a chance that the dollar may turn around and weaken somewhat. If the US economic data report This week didn’t come out better than expected. You should keep an eye on the US labor market data report. which will start from Total job openings (Job Openings) to total non-agricultural employment (Nonfarm Payrolls) at the end of the week. Incidentally, over the weekend, China’s PMI index report came out better than expected. It may help support the Chinese yuan and other Asian currencies to strengthen somewhat. During the coming week As for domestic factors, we think that market players will wait and see. CPI inflation report and meeting between the Prime Minister and the Governor of the Bank of Thailand This may affect the direction of fund flow for foreign investors. Especially the bond market fund flow. Another important factor affecting the direction of the baht is the gold transaction flow. and crude oil transaction flow In the past, such transaction flows have contributed to pressure on the baht to depreciate. (Gold and Crude Oil Purchase Flow) Technically The recent depreciation of the baht may begin to slow down and enter the important resistance zone around 36.85 baht per dollar. Signals from both RSI and MACD (Daily Time Frame) indicate that the baht has a chance to swing sideways or gradually strengthen. After a Bearish Divergence signal began to appear on RSI (RSI also entered the Overbought zone) and MACD Forest. In addition, on shorter time frames such as H4 and H1, signals from both RSI and MACD indicated that the momentum on the weak side was beginning to slow down somewhat. However, if the baht gradually strengthens It may still be stuck in the first support zone around 36.20-36.30 baht per dollar and has a support level of 36.00 baht per dollar. It is the next important support line.
Gold Highlight
The price of gold has fallen heavily. More than we estimated After both the dollar and the 10-year bond yield in the US are rising, this week the main highlight is still the US economic data report. and statements by key central bank officials Gold prices have a chance to rebound. If the US economic data report It didn’t come out better than expected, but the price of gold dropped out of the support zone of 1,845 dollars per ounce. It will not be difficult to open the opportunity to further decrease and test the zone of 1,820 dollars per ounce, which may happen. If the US economic data report Came out better than expected Supporting both the dollar and the US 10-year bond yield to continue rising. Technically, signals from RSI and MACD (Daily Time Frame) still indicate that gold prices are likely to continue to decline, but RSI is starting to enter the Oversold zone, while signals from shorter Time Frames such as H4 and H1. Indicating that gold prices have a chance to rebound somewhat from the Bullish Divergence signal on the RSI, we maintain our gold price target at $2,100 per ounce. Makes us still think Market players may wait for the moment when the price of gold adjusts to gradually buy.
2023-10-02 01:26:36
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