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US Default Looms: Can Biden and Republicans Reach a Deal?

The contradiction was clear between Biden’s messages of unity during the G7 summit in Japan, from which the US president had just returned, and the tension he faced upon his return.

Financial markets were confused Monday, and Wall Street opened without a clear direction with the Dow Jones losing 0.02%.

Negotiators from both sides met this morning to prepare for the meeting, according to a source close to the file, but the White House has not set a date yet for a meeting between the 80-year-old Democratic president and Republican leader McCarthy, whom he met twice in two weeks in the Oval Office.

The two men spoke by phone Sunday. McCarthy described the call as “constructive,” while Biden said it was “very good.”

– Race against time –

These encouraging signs come after a less positive weekend. Negotiations between the White House team and the Republicans ended badly.

The Democratic administration and the Republican opposition are racing against time to avoid the possibility of the United States defaulting on its obligations after June 1.

The Republicans require that Biden agree to a significant reduction in budget expenditures in return for their agreement to raise the debt ceiling, while the Democrats accuse them of using tactics to advance their political agenda, endangering the US economy.

Although raising the debt ceiling is usually a routine process, in recent years it has become a point of contention with Republican lawmakers seeking to obtain spending cuts in return for raising the ceiling.

“My position has not changed. Washington cannot continue to spend money we do not have. We will meet in person tomorrow to continue negotiations,” the Republican Speaker of the House wrote on Twitter.

Biden warned in a tweet that he would reject an agreement that “protects billions (dollars) in subsidies for major oil companies and endangers health care for 21 million Americans, or protects the wealthy from tax fraud and endangers food aid for one million Americans.”

– Trump-

The two sides have only ten days to reach an agreement and allow the United States to continue paying its bills.

And in the event that no agreement is reached, the country will be in an unprecedented state of default, with potentially catastrophic repercussions for the US and global economy, as of June 1.

And the Treasury Department warned of dire consequences if the state runs out of cash to pay its entitlements, making it unable to pay federal employees and potentially leading to higher interest rates with spillover effects on businesses, mortgages and global markets.

So who will concede first? The American president who knows very well that a possible economic defeat, whatever its political source, would threaten his chances of re-election? Or Kevin McCarthy, whose position depends on a handful of radical members of Congress who call on him, as former President Donald Trump does, to “disobey.”

The left wing of the Democratic Party is also pushing Biden not to succumb and to resort to Article 14, which was added to the US Constitution in 1868, and states that “the validity of the public debt of the United States permitted by law … shall not be in doubt.” In other words, the expenses That approved by vote must be respected.

This means that the US president will act as if the debt ceiling does not exist.

Joe Biden is considering this possibility fraught with legal risks, especially when he is facing a Supreme Court that leans heavily to the right.

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2023-05-22 15:06:13

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