U.S. consumers’ inflation expectations remained largely stable in August, but concerns about household finances and pessimism about the job market increased, a New York Fed survey found.
According to the Fed’s announcement on the 11th, the median inflation expectations one year ahead rose slightly in August to 3.6%. In July it was 3.5%. Inflation expectations for the next three years fell to 2.8% (2.9% in the previous month). Inflation expectations for the next five years rose to 3% (2.9%).
There was a more pronounced change in consumer views about household finances. “Both perceptions of current credit conditions and expectations for future conditions have deteriorated,” the Fed said in a statement.
Other respondents in the survey said they believed the unemployment rate was likely to rise in a year’s time. The probability of losing one’s job in the next year rose by two points to 13.8%, the highest level since April 2021. The probability of voluntarily changing jobs within the next year increased by 1.9 percentage points to 18.9%. The percentage increases for both questions were noticeable among people with an educational background of less than a high school graduate and an annual income of less than $50,000 (approximately 7.3 million yen).
Consumers are increasingly concerned about their ability to access credit, with the proportion saying they find it very or somewhat difficult to access credit now at the highest level since the survey began in June 2013 compared to a year ago. Ta. An increase in the number of people who said it will be difficult to obtain credit over the next year.
Consumers Find it Harder to Tap Credit
The share of households saying it is “somewhat” or “much” harder to access credit rose to the highest since survey started in 2013
Source: Survey of Consumer Expectations, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
news-rsf-original-reference paywall">Original title:US Inflation Outlook Stable, Credit Pessimism Rises in Fed Study(excerpt)
2023-09-11 16:16:00
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