Kiev-Moscow- After long warnings about the possibility of Ukraine losing the war to Russia, and many threats and announcements made by Kiev in this regard, the United States is moving to approve a large military aid package for it, amounting to approx. 61 billion dollars.
A new big aid, but it is not like the previous ones, because it comes in the form of a loan that directs money to specific channels, especially about 23.2 billion to stock American weapons and ammunition in Ukraine to replenish, especially missiles for artillery and defense systems, and 13.8 billion to buy modern weapons and defense systems from America.
For example, $7.85 billion can be placed in the budget of Ukraine; However, he is responsible for not spending it on pensions, since the support comes in the form of a loan, not an aid, and this goes against American legislation.
Washington plans to give Kiev a military aid package worth about $61 billion (Getty)
Unconditional consent
It seems that the issue is not much more important for Ukraine due to the difficult situations it is facing militarily and economically, especially since it has been asking for this American support since September 2023, and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, believed that “if Kiev is offered credit support today or tomorrow for free, we will agree Support today.
An expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, Ihor Tyshkevich explains this by saying that it would be profitable for Ukraine to receive unconditional aid, but due to the current severe shortage , Kiev is ready to agree to any terms.
In addition to distance, Tishkevich says this support somewhat neutralizes the risk of a sudden aid rush if Washington’s political course changes after the presidential elections, regardless of who will win, in terms of Republican candidate Donald Trump’s ability to win. over current President Joe Biden, which worries Ukrainians in general.
He explained to Al Jazeera Net that the new aid will continue until September 2025 (the end of the American fiscal year), and thanks to him, they will have enough to cover the costs of the planned military budget, even if they had to be. reduce costs in other sectors.
However, some Ukrainian officials note that it is possible to partially or completely cancel the loan, or to fill it by giving Kiev the right to use some of Russia’s frozen assets. go away.
Ukraine’s ambassador to Washington, Oksana Markarova, pointed out that the draft document voted on by the US House of Representatives shows the possibility of canceling up to 50% of the debt after November 15, 2024, and an amount can be cancel any other existence. after 1 January 2026.
The ambassador explained, in a statement to the Ukrainian “RBK” agency, that there is another positive point, namely that the United States Maybe it depends There is also a law that allows the US President to transfer imported Russian assets to Ukraine, and the draft law has already been proposed for discussion in the House of Representatives.
For her part, the Deputy Minister of Justice of Ukraine Irina Mudra says that Kiev really wants Washington to accept these two projects as one package.
Although the issue has been settled, and Ukraine is giving a big relief with this large loan, military experts do not expect that this will quickly turn into a favor on the battle front.
Expanding the crisis
Military analyst Denis Popovich told Al Jazeera Net that the aid will start arriving in the second half of June next month, after completing all the usual and bureaucratic procedures, and that this could allow the Russians increase their attacks and take advantage of the delayed arrival window. of American aid.
The same analyst explained that the Russian forces continue to intensify offensive operations in some areas and that the Ukrainian forces may suffer more problems in the coming weeks before they can stop it. the current Russian invasion.
As for Moscow, the decision did not surprise him, and he was quick to criticize it and repeat that the support provided by the West will only prolong the fighting and increase the number of casualties.
State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said the new US aid package for Kiev worth $61 billion will bury Ukraine’s economy and deprive the country of its future, describing it as an attempt to enslave a put on Kiev through debt.
According to Russian observers, the decision of the US House of Representatives allows the conclusion that the Democrats and a large part of the Republicans have reached a temporary consensus on the issue of aid to Ukraine, which will be given passed mainly through credit and deduction. frozen Russian assets.
At the same time – according to them – Washington is preparing to transfer the burden of supporting the armed forces of Ukraine to the European Union.
In the opinion of the analyst of military affairs, Mikhail Simibratov, the decision made confirms the attempt of the United States to extend the conflict and push the situation in Ukraine towards further deterioration.
Simibratov told Al Jazeera Net that the war has now entered a new phase where Western capitals are no longer betting on an attack by Ukrainian forces, but have been ‘ enable Kiev to carry out terrorist attacks on targets, including deep into Russian territory.
In his opinion, after all the procedural issues are completed, military assistance will be provided to Ukraine immediately within the next two to few weeks.
Outcomes
Analyst Mikhail Simibratov pointed out that Zelensky does not adequately assess the consequences of providing more aid to Ukraine, explaining that according to the draft law approved by the US House of Representatives, approximately $23 billion to be used to renew US military arsenals.
More than $11 billion will also be used to finance the current military operations of the US Armed Forces in the region, and another $14 billion to purchase weapons and military equipment for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
According to the military affairs analyst, $61 billion is a lot, but the Americans will spend more than half of it on themselves, and Kiev will receive very little from the so-called aid package, mainly in the form of credit.
According to his estimates, Kiev will receive the Atakms missile systems that have already been prepared for transfer to Ukraine and are now officially approved, and have a range that will allow them to hit targets deep there the territory of Russia, as well as other types of weapons, including reconnaissance equipment, air defense systems and electronic warfare.
As for the researcher of international affairs, Dmitry Kim, he believes that almost all the “nominal” money given to Ukraine will remain in the American economy and in the American military-industrial complex, and that American military companies benefit from Kiev’s draft military aid. bill
According to him, the price of the US aid package for Kiev would be by sending tens of thousands of Ukrainians to “an unimaginable geopolitical massacre.”
The expert believes that these weapons could be used against Russia at the beginning of next May, which makes the question of Russia’s response more urgent, whether by to launch attacks on transportation and logistics facilities in Ukraine, or on critical infrastructure facilities that provide support and aid to Ukrainian forces.
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2024-04-22 08:35:49
