On the 45th anniversary of the “Taiwan Relations Act”, will the United States and Japan form a five-nation security group to protect Taiwan? (Provided by “News Break”)
[The Epoch Times, April 02, 2024]Welcome to the “News Cracking” episode on Monday, April 1. This episode of Cracking News features senior political and economic commentator Wu Jialong, Professor Li Shihui, Chairman of the Taiwan Institute of Japanese Studies, and the host Zhang Dongxu.
Today’s focus: Could the Philippines become the Asian version of Ukraine? The Taiwan Strait connects with the South China Sea! From the dense deployment of the US alliance around the first island chain, can we see through the CCP’s plan to invade Taiwan? Is it reasonable for Europe, the United States and Japan to resist Chinese electric vehicles? Why is Biden escalating the trade war?
Dalio, a Wall Street tycoon who has long invested in China, is pessimistic about the Chinese economy, which is facing a once-in-a-century storm and may start a war within ten years.
April 10 marks the 45th anniversary of the entry into force of the Taiwan Relations Act in the United States. On April 10 and 11, the White House holds the U.S.-Japan Summit and the U.S.-Japan-Philippines Summit. In the last week of the countdown, foreign media have revealed news one after another, including the largest upgrade of U.S. and Japanese security in 64 years, the establishment of a five-nation security partnership, a joint patrol of the three navies in the South China Sea, a U.S.-Japan high-tech R&D architecture, etc. The US media has recently been discussing whether the scope of NATO’s 32-nation defense cooperation should be expanded to Hawaii and Guam to help the US military assist in the defense of Taiwan.
The United States leads multiple triangles to stabilize the Indo-Pacific, including the United States, Japan and the Philippines, the United States, Japan and Australia, the United States, Japan and South Korea, and the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. The “U.S., Japan, and Taiwan” triangle is increasingly coming to the surface, and it is reported that the United States will send the “first island chain link” Gu Liyan. He was posted to Taiwan three times to take over AIT. What does it mean?
U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi criticized the CCP for using unscrupulous means. Treasury Secretary Yellen visited China in April and expressed concern about China’s overcapacity and distortion of the global economy.
The liberal camp has deployed its forces to deter the CCP from triggering the Third World War; in addition, as the technology war and trade war become more and more intense, the CCP attempts to overtake the industry in a corner, and the results may be beyond your imagination.
[U.S.-Japan Summit Group 5+1 Defense Line to Resist and Mutually Protect the First Island Chain U.S.-Japan-Philippines Navy Joint Patrol]
There is still a week left before the U.S.-Japan summit on April 10. Through foreign media, there are waves of news, including the maintenance of the Seventh Fleet in Japan, the largest upgrade of U.S.-Japanese security in 64 years, and the latest news. The United States and Japan will seek to strengthen cooperation with the United Kingdom, Australia, and The Philippines’ “Five-Nation Security Partnership” will counter the CCP and increase joint exercises and defense technology cooperation; the summit between the United States, Japan and the Philippines will announce a joint patrol of the three navies in the South China Sea. Then, the second summit between the United States, Japan and South Korea will be held in July.
According to news on the 29th, the commander of the Navy of the Republic of China will visit the United States next week to discuss Taiwan-US naval cooperation and participate in the “Sea, Air and Space Seminar” from April 8 to 10; sources said that this is the United States’ “joint island defense concept” “Part of the operation is to coordinate with Taiwan, Japan and other places to fight against the Chinese Communist Army in the “first island chain”.
Will the security cooperation between the five countries and the cooperation between the Taiwan and the US navies form a 5+1 forward defense line? The security partnership between these five countries will become the connection point of the defense line through various cooperations such as the RAA Mutual Access Agreement, and will connect forces such as NATO in the future?
►Li Shihui observed that the United States and its allies are forming a “layered three-dimensional encirclement” against the CCP. The South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait are bound to be interconnected. Whether it is the South China Sea issue or the Taiwan Strait issue, Taiwan is actually the most critical player. “It is not ruled out that Taiwan will gradually have a certain say in the South China Sea issue, so Taiwan must be concerned about the role of various countries in the South China Sea.” and strategy.”
Wu Jialong observed that the East China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea are interconnected; the East Asia region is a game of chess, and the core is to protect the peace and security of the Taiwan Strait, because Taiwan is connected to Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, and in the key area of the first island chain, this region is safe The role has now fully emerged, confirming that the United States is building the entire security architecture.
The Philippines plays a role. Wu Jialong observed that the two indispensable pieces of the QUAD security dialogue between the United States, Japan, Australia, and India are South Korea and the Philippines. The Philippines seems to have chosen a side, and the Philippines may accept more joint exercises and weapons deployment; if The CCP’s conflicts here are increasingly escalating, especially on Ren’ai Reef (South China Sea) and other islands and reefs. This may become an “Asian version of Ukraine,” absorbing and consuming the military power of the CCP’s southern theater on islands and reefs in the South China Sea. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces may extend to the surrounding areas and jointly defend the first island chain, the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, and even the Indian Ocean with the United States. Once something happens in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, India on the side may take action on the Sino-Indian border to distract the CCP’s forces.
[NATO’s eastward march into the Indo-Pacific and its defense against Hawaii and Guam? Chains restricting the communist army from seeking Taiwan]
How will NATO extend its reach to help stabilize the Indo-Pacific? U.S. media reported on the 30th that due to geographical and historical particularities, the scope of defense of the 32 countries in the NATO treaty does not include the U.S. state of Hawaii in the Pacific and its territory of Guam, the two major Indo-Pacific military centers of the U.S. military, such as Hawaii. There are the Pearl Harbor U.S. military base and the headquarters of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.
Recently, some think tank experts discussed that the current situation that NATO is not included in the scope may not be conducive to assisting in the defense of Taiwan; they believe that this matter should be discussed to help deter the CCP. NATO also discussed setting up an office in Japan last year.
►Professor Li Shihui, how do you interpret the current discussion on this matter, linking Indo-Pacific defense and assisting in the defense of Taiwan?
Li Shihui believes that the role and extent of NATO’s role in the Indo-Pacific have not yet been determined, but these discussions have shown that the concept of “something happening in Taiwan means something is happening globally” is slowly emerging. Judging from the security layout of various countries in the first island chain, “Taiwan is the hotspot that links the cooperative relations among these countries in security assurance”; it shows that future peace, war, and economy are concepts that affect the whole body.
Some strategic observers believe that if the Chinese Communist Party seizes Taiwan by force, it will hope to find the “best opportunity” to attack Taiwan and adopt a “blitzkrieg”. This will first paralyze to a certain extent “the forces that can rush to support Taiwan”, such as the US military stationed in Japan, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, The U.S. military in Guam or Hawaii, and the U.S. military stationed in South Korea.
However, the United States and other allies are also dynamically competing and strengthening intimidation forces around Taiwan, forcing the CCP to repeatedly recalculate and postpone, making it difficult to find the so-called “best opportunity” to attack Taiwan. “When these countries consider the possible strategic deployment of the CCP, how can (countries) cooperate more closely without allowing the CCP to achieve the blitzkrieg results it wants on the Taiwan Strait issue due to some temporary changes occurring above? So this is also the main background for what we are now observing as Western countries, dominated by the United States, carry out some intensive deployments in the Indo-Pacific region, including around the Taiwan Strait.”
[Is Dao Chain Tonggu Li promising to accept AIT’s stationing in Taiwan? Invisible allies in the US-Japan-Taiwan triangle come to the fore]
Rosenberg, chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), visited Taiwan from the 31st to April 6th. It was reported on the 30th that the Minister to Japan, Gu Liyan, may be stationed in Taiwan for the third time and take over as the director of AIT; the United States did not deny it. Gu Liyan is described as the number one expert on the island chain and Japan. He is highly regarded in diplomatic circles. He was stationed in Taiwan during the Trump administration and rapidly promoted Taiwan-US relations.
►Professor Li Shihui, (1) If this appointment is realized, how do you interpret the signal or the impact on future routes? (2) At the U.S.-Japan Summit in April, foreign media predicted that the United States, Japan, and some technology giants may establish a high-tech and semiconductor R&D architecture. The Taiwanese characters are curious. Taiwan, the United States and Japan established the GCTF Global Cooperation and Training Framework in 2015 to help Taiwan expand its space for international cooperation. During his tenure as AIT deputy director in 2019, Gu Liyan said, “We hope that the GCTF will become an expanding multilateral mechanism and more broadly integrate the Indo-Pacific region. All economies.” Li Yingjie, then director of the AIT, said that Taiwan was included in every part of the U.S. economic strategy. Coupled with the 21st Century Trade Agreement between Taiwan and the United States in 2023, does it remind people of the prospects for Taiwan and the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework IPEF”?
Li Shihui interpreted that this is a personnel arrangement for the United States to strengthen its Indo-Pacific strategy. The future director of the U.S. AIT will not only deal with cross-strait issues and the situation in Taiwan, but will also be linked to some specific strategic content of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. ; This means that from a U.S. strategic perspective, Taiwan is already an important player in the Indo-Pacific strategy. Some of Taiwan’s actions and opinions will also attract the attention of the major participating countries in the Indo-Pacific strategy through the links of the US AIT Director’s diplomatic and military networks in the United States. This also shows that the Indo-Pacific strategy has filled the gap of “Taiwan’s periphery” and is becoming complete.
From the structure of the Taiwan-US-Japan GCTF and its operations since its establishment in 2015, we can find that it conveys a very important message: future cooperation among economies in the Indo-Pacific region will be multi-level cooperation, and Taiwan is indispensable.
[DalioispessimisticabouttheCCP:Aonce-in-a-centuryeconomicstormwillchallengetheeconomyin5yearsandstartawarintenyears?】
It is rare for the CCP to hold three major international conferences in one week: (March 24-25) China Development Forum, (March 26) Invest in China Summit, (March 26-29) Boao Forum for Asia, in an attempt to appease and deter foreign investment Evacuate. However, foreign business leaders said that they have developed a phenomenon of “promise fatigue” towards the CCP, believing that the situation is pessimistic and that the CCP continues to engage in economic centralization.
Ray Dalio, the so-called old friend of the CCP on Wall Street and the founder of the American hedge fund Bridgewater, stayed in Beijing for 13 days. On the 27th, he published a long article stating that he responded to the CCP leader’s statement that the international order is facing “unprecedented conditions in a century.” There are different understandings of “Great Change”. The CCP is facing a once-in-a-century storm, and the Chinese economy faces severe challenges in at least five aspects; it urgently needs to solve the debt problem, otherwise it may experience a “lost decade” similar to Japan’s economic stagnation in the 1990s. Without coordination of economic and cultural conflicts, the likelihood of a devastating war in the next decade is high.
►What do you think of Teacher Wu Jialong?
[Foreshadowing the escalation of the trade war? U.S. Treasury Secretary’s visit to China is concerned about overcapacity distorting the global economy]
U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi released the “2024 National Trade Assessment Report” on the 29th, mentioning that in key industries, the CCP has set goals that must be achieved using non-market means, and attempts to become the leader of key global industries by any means necessary.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said on the 27th that she plans to put pressure on Beijing when she visits China in April, focusing on China’s overcapacity and distortion of the global economy. “China’s overcapacity has distorted global market prices and production models, hurting U.S. companies and workers, and also hurts businesses and workers around the world.”
When Yellen visited China in July last year, Wu Jialong judged that she was going to “find out” the actual situation of China’s economy and the authorities’ response.
►Wu Jialong interpreted that the statements made by the Finance Minister and trade negotiators are likely to hint and foretell that the trade war will escalate. “There are too many cases, and the CCP is in the end, from over-investment, to overcapacity, to foreign dumping, and finally trade friction, it happens again and again. So now Yellen goes to (China) to clarify the problem, Do you handle it? If you don’t handle it, don’t blame me for attacking later. It’s like saying hello first with courtesy and then with soldiers. The problem is that China’s overcapacity problem has indeed impacted the global economy and made it difficult for the global division of labor to operate normally.” It is foreseeable that what will happen next The trade war between the United States and China is getting worse.
The deterioration of U.S.-China relations is not just because of the Taiwan issue, the South China Sea issue, and the trade imbalance, but because we have found that there is no way to solve the problem through consultation with the CCP. U.S.-China relations “will fall into a vicious cycle, a negative spiral, and it will be difficult to see a turnaround.”
[IstheChineseCommunistPartyplanningtoovertakeelectricvehiclesincorners?AretheUnitedStatesJapanandEuropereadytochangelanesandopenanewpath?】
The United States is concerned that China’s overcapacity may distort the global economy. In particular, China’s so-called “three new items” of electric vehicles, solar cells, and lithium batteries are being dumped around the world, arousing high alarm in the United States and Europe.
Hot offensive and defensive issues, in addition to the United States’ expansion of the ban on chip technology against the Chinese Communist Party, are in response to the dumping and information security risks of Chinese-made electric vehicles.
►Li Shihui observed, “The world we live in now, and all the rules that predict the world, have undergone tremendous changes. During the Cold War, the most important guiding principle of all rules was national security. Under the framework of national security, you cannot Which country to trade with. In the post-Cold War period, this principle became globalization. Setting up factories where the lowest cost was sought became the criterion for a country or enterprise to make strategic judgments. The new modern concept, the supreme principle, is economic security. , everything can no longer operate in the same way as in the past era of globalization, but must rethink the actions of the country, the actions of enterprises, and the changes in industries within the economic security framework.”
Li Shihui observes the competition in the automobile industry. Judging from some industrial policies in Germany, the United States, and Japan, it seems that there is a certain degree of wariness against electric vehicles; I even heard some Japanese experts believe that when the world set the target for 2035, In the era of electric vehicles, the sale of gasoline vehicles must be stopped. They believe that this important international decision seems to have some relatively beneficial countries behind it.
Currently, the United States imposes high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and European countries extend the production life of gasoline vehicles. Japan uses gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles to exchange time for space and strengthen Japan’s next generation of mobile technology “hydrogen vehicles.” Japan It uses a national strategic approach to unite other countries to promote the specifications and development of hydrogen energy; the CCP uses the power of one country to crack down on electric vehicles in other countries.
China’s electric vehicle industry “is unprofitable under the extremely competitive situation in the country, and the industry will die. In fact, everyone is also worried about whether electric vehicles in the future will move towards LED or solar panels (a mistake for the industry)?” “If it achieves cost competition and there is no profit, then I don’t think other countries will continue to support electric vehicles. Other countries will adopt different methods.” These countries may give up LED and solar panels. industry, but cannot give up the automobile industry.
Li Shihui observed that Japan’s automobile industry is entering the “era of de-serialization of supply chains.” “De-serialization” can also be understood as a certain correction to globalization issues. It is necessary to find Japan’s cooperation within the framework of economic security. In order to build a “future mobile technology supply chain” with external supply chain partners, we must especially look for countries that share common values with Japan. Taiwan, for example, has great opportunities to participate.
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2024-04-02 01:12:41