Urgent Climate Risks Report: Netherlands Facing Drought, Floods, and Policy Challenges

• Rolf Schuttenhelm

  Climate editor

Climate change is already causing serious risks in the Netherlands and this will only increase in the future. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Group (PBL) said this in a new climate report on Tuesday. The problems arise from, for example, heavy rains and rising sea levels, increased summer heat and the effects of climate change in other parts of the world – which could have economic consequences. on Holland too.

Gradual changes in the climate, such as warmer seasons or the accelerated rise of water in the North Sea, can be reasonably predicted. But in practice we are often surprised when the results hit. For example, in July 2019, the temperature level of 40 degrees was broken in the Netherlands for the first time. That was decades earlier than expected. The heavy rain and floods in Limburg two years later, which cost almost half a billion euros, also came as a bottle from the blue.

“We don’t know exactly when and where, but we know that big events will happen more often because of climate change,” lead author Frank van Gaalen told NOS. “And so we have to prepare as best we can . For example, by putting shade parks in big cities. But also by telling people about what awaits us.”

The PBL refers to three main climate trends for the Netherlands: it is getting warmer, it is getting drier and it is getting wetter. Each of these trends brings its own climate risks. For example, 8 million Dutch people currently live in flood prone areas. Flooding in densely populated areas can cause significant damage to infrastructure. More summer heat leads to direct health damage – already an annual cost of a billion euros.

Finally, drought damages agriculture, nature and water quality. This is still being addressed with existing change measures, but according to the PBL, the limits of that approach are already showing. An example is agricultural spraying during drought. According to the report, this tripled in the dry years of 2018, 2019 and 2020. First, irrigation (for agriculture) reduces drought damage, but at the cost of further groundwater depletion – thus intensifying drought damage for agriculture and nature.

“As far as we are concerned, most of the attention is needed for the effect of drought,” said Van Gaalen. “There are more dry periods, which last longer – and at the same time the -increasing demand for water In growing parts of the Netherlands, there is not enough water available for irrigation in agriculture, nature and eventually also for drinking water. So choices have to be made here and trade-offs between the different interests.”

Different effects of climate change also interact. “Consider the combination of heat and drought, or persistent drought, which means that nature has too little time to recover and therefore the consequences are increasing,” says Van Gaalen.

Climate change will become increasingly harmful to Dutch nature. “For Dutch nature, this is in addition to the lack of water, eutrophication, acidification and degradation.” To make Dutch nature more resistant to climate change, these other stress factors must be reduced, according to the planning group.

The report also focuses on some of the lesser-known risks of climate change, such as the loss of archaeological heritage. Much has been lost above ground, but it is precisely in the moist soil that an important historical archive of perishable materials, such as wood, leather and textiles, from the Middle Ages and Roman times has been preserved in the Netherlands​​​​ . If this heritage dries up due to the collapse of groundwater, it will be lost. After a series of recent dry summers, the PBL warns that the Netherlands will have to make quick choices here too.

The PBL says that addressing climate risks is “urgent”. This is partly due to the main challenges of spatial planning. Based on the principle of ‘water and soil management’, the areas suitable for nature, housing and different types of agriculture should be carefully considered.

But according to PBL, there are more issues. For example, it is not known how the Netherlands will adapt to sea level rise in the long term. “Climate change affects many policy processes and requires structural options that protect the future. Therefore, a climate-proof society does not focus only on changes for one problem, with technical solutions such as raising dikes or irrigation,” the planning group writes.

“Finally, adaptations to climate change can reduce the risks we have described, but not solve them completely. It is still important to limit as much as possible by reducing gas emissions greenhouse as much as possible,” concluded Van Gaalen.