Updated Snowfall Predictions for Tuesday’s Storm in Southern New England
The weather is a fascinating phenomenon that, despite our best efforts, can be unpredictable at times. Today is a perfect example of this unpredictability. Initially, there were concerns about the European model, which suggested that the bulk of the storm would stay south of the region and track further out to sea. However, with additional data throughout the day, it now appears that a lower impact storm is in store for Tuesday.
According to meteorologist Dave Epstein, some areas, especially those north of Boston, may even miss the storm entirely. The city itself is expected to receive a couple of inches of snow, possibly reaching up to 5 or 6 inches if the storm comes close enough. This new information effectively takes the idea of a foot of snow in the city off the table.
The decision to not solely rely on the European model from the beginning was a prudent one. While it is a good model, it is not always correct, and it is essential to consider all available data. Discounting other models outright would not have been wise. There was significant evidence pointing towards heavy snowfall on Tuesday, which warranted attention.
Although there is a slight possibility that the forecasts could shift again, it is unlikely once models start converging on a particular trend. In this case, the trend indicates a less impactful storm, and that is usually what happens.
As for the timing of the storm, snow should arrive in the morning but will likely begin as a mixture of snow and rain in the city. Areas south of the city towards Cape Cod and the Islands may experience rain for a few hours before transitioning to snow. The bulk of the accumulation is expected later in the morning through the afternoon. By 5 to 7 p.m., the storm will start winding down.
During periods of heavy snowfall, the rate could reach 1 to 3 inches per hour, making travel extremely difficult due to reduced visibility. A winter storm warning is in effect for the Boston area, eastern and southeastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and the Cape and the Islands. Additionally, a winter weather advisory is in place for central and western Massachusetts, as well as southern New Hampshire.
In addition to the snow, winds will increase in the afternoon, particularly in Cape Cod and the Islands, and along the immediate shoreline. With the heavy, wet nature of the snow, there is a possibility of scattered power outages. However, since the total snowfall is expected to be less than initially anticipated, the power issue should not be as problematic.
Minor to borderline moderate coastal flooding is expected during high tide, particularly in Boston Harbor. The forecast indicates two high tides that could experience minor coastal flooding—one on Tuesday and another early Wednesday.
Fortunately, the storm will clear out by Tuesday night, and Wednesday will see a return of sunshine. However, colder air will accompany the clearing skies, with temperatures in the 30s.
As always, it is essential to stay updated on the latest weather conditions and heed any warnings or advisories from local authorities. Stay safe and be prepared for possible travel disruptions during this winter storm.
