Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The economist team of PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) said that the domestic economy will only experience a period of recovery in 2021, but it will not improve like the period before Covid-19.
Economic growth in the fourth quarter is forecast to be in the position of -3% to 0% before finally climbing back to the 2.54% position in the first quarter of 2021.
Chief Economist of Bank Mandiri Andry Asmoro said that to accelerate the process of economic recovery is supported by a number of things, starting from the discovery of vaccines and regaining confidence in various industries.
This economic recovery must also be supported by the low benchmark interest rate of Bank Indonesia (BI), at which time the 7-Day Repo Rate (7DRR) is at 4%, which is predicted to decline in line with the position of the American central bank. United, The Fed, which will also keep interest rates low until 2023.
“If we look ahead when there are signs recovery fast, the next challenge is the shift of world monetary and fiscal policy, “said Andry in a virtual presentation, Thursday (9/24/2020).
He assessed that in the current conditions the Indonesian economy has improved relatively with the reopening of the economy since June.
He also revealed that the retail sector figures had passed their lowest levels in April and May and was supported by the realization of financial stimuli such as social assistance from the government.
“This is what we have to protect, because otherwise the PSBB will return [pembatasan sosial berskala besar] and hit the economy back in the third and fourth quarters, “he continued.
Andry assessed, policy cash transfer given by the government provides a multiplier effect on economic growth.
In fact, he said, if the Omnibus Law which is currently being completed can be completed then it can become booster a faster economy because it encourages investment in the country.
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