“Unstoppable: The Mystery Behind Japan’s Declining Birth Rate and Regional Disparity”

Why is Japan’s declining birth rate unstoppable? Commentator Kazuo Yawata says, “If you compare the fertility rate by prefecture, the fertility rate tends to be low in prefectures where there are many so-called ‘ikumen.’ ‘s policy development is irrelevant,” he said.

Japan’s fertility rate ranks 174th out of 187 countries

A key indicator when discussing the declining birthrate and aging population is the total fertility rate (hereafter basically referred to as the fertility rate. fertility rate by age group aged 15-49).

In 2020, Japan had 840,835 births, with a total fertility rate of 1.33. In the world birth rate ranking, Japan ranks 174th out of 187 countries, but it ranks 6th among G7 countries, and Italy is the lowest (181st) with 1.24. France tops the G7 with 1.83 (120th), followed by the US, UK, Germany and Canada. In 1980, the UK was the top with 1.90, followed closely by France, the US and Japan with 1.75.

By the way, the lowest birth rate in the world as of 2020 is 0.84 in South Korea.In 1980, it was 2.82, so the declining birthrate is the most serious. Similarly, China fell from 2.61 to 1.70.

Also, in JapanTransitionLooking at it, it was 5.10 in 1925, but fell to 3.65 in 1950 and 2.00 in 1960, and has continued to decline for a long time since then.

The top 10 in Japan are concentrated in Shikoku and Kyushu

However, there is no such thing as the same number in Japan. Okinawa ranked 1st with 1.83 and the top 11 prefectures with 1.50 or more, while Tokyo ranked last with 1.12 and the bottom 9 prefectures with less than 1.30.

This regional disparity offers clues to the question of what is needed to stop the declining birthrate in Japan, and whether it is possible to avoid the declining birthrate by directing industries to regions where the population can grow. It seems that

Let’s take a look at the fertility rate ranking by prefecture as of 2020 (Chart 1). The top 10 prefectures are Okinawa, Miyazaki, Kagoshima, Nagasaki, Shimane, Kumamoto, Saga, Fukui, Oita and Tottori.

The bottom 10 prefectures are Tokyo, Miyagi, Hokkaido, Akita, Kyoto, Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama, Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama, Nara, and Osaka.

In other words, the easternmost of the top 10 prefectures is Fukui, which lies on the border between East and West Japan (the 47 prefectures are divided in half by Fukui, Shiga, and Mie), and the rest are either Kyushu or the Chugoku region.