I realize in advance that in light of the tense – not to say explosive – political circumstances, my words will arouse condemnation from some quarters, and surprise and distress from others. However, anything other than frankness would be misplaced.
What our region finds itself in today is an extremely dangerous situation. Its people are not properly aware of the dangers of its repercussions, and the “international community” does not care about these repercussions… It is losing its credibility with the passage of days, experiences, and entitlements.
Of course, there are those who consider that our countries are too incapable of making a difference or influencing the course of events, as evidenced by their proliferation and proliferation in almost every corner of our Arab world. The reality is that we can hardly contain a problem before this problem generates a crisis, and hardly a crisis appears until someone appears who seeks to benefit from it before its fragments reach him.
There is no need, in my opinion, to waste time discussing each of these crises, but there is no harm in dealing with specific cases… even though the regional collapse no longer distinguishes between major and minor entities, mature political identities and fresh ones. “Failed states” “Peace be upon you as far as you can see.
During the past three days, Lebanon was rocked by two murders. The first victim was Pascal Suleiman, the coordinator of the “Lebanese Forces” party in the Jbeil region in the northern Mount Lebanon Governorate, and the second was a money changer named Muhammad Sorour… whose name is on the American list of those accused of financially collaborating with “Hezbollah” and Iran. And the Hamas movement.
Suleiman was liquidated, according to an “official” account, during a “theft that targeted his car.” However, the details that began to unfold even before the body was found, and its event “stations” moved between Lebanon and Syria, suggested anything other than the motive of theft.
Regarding the liquidation of Suleiman, many Lebanese parties linked the crime to Syrian refugees and displaced persons… and also to “illegal” weapons. Regarding this weapon, there is a clear allusion to Hezbollah, amid talk of its possible involvement in a confrontation with Israel within the scope of the “unity of the arenas” surrounding Israel, and in solidarity with Tehran in its promised revenge in response to the bombing of its consulate in Damascus.
For your information, the Byblos region is a mixed region, with the largest sectarian components being Maronites and Shiites, and it has witnessed in recent months numerous problems and disputes over land ownership, and political and partisan movements.
Moreover, the Christian scene in general in Lebanon has known, and continues to witness, an increase in the level of fierce incitement against Syrian refugees and displaced persons. Therefore, the murder of Suleiman killed several birds with one stone, the most important of which were:
1- There is a “some connection” to Syria as a land, and Syrians as individuals, to what happened.
2- Intimidating the Lebanese Christian from the Syrian refugee and displaced person so that he will intensify the demand for his return, even though the main reason for the refugees’ survival is the Damascus regime’s refusal of their return after it deliberately displaced them.
3- Creating an atmosphere of fear in Lebanon that ends with surrendering to the logic of weapons, and leaving it alone in deciding the fate of the country… through war or through deals in which Iran is a major party.
4- Sending an indirect message to the other sects of Lebanon to the effect that they must accept that the decision of war and peace will remain in the hands of “Hezbollah” and the armed organizations it is currently “generating” within those sects and which will follow its will and instructions.
Question marks remain in the case of the killing of the cashier Sorour, who was summoned by a woman to a villa outside Beirut under the pretext of completing a financial transaction, and only a dead body returned!
The liquidation of the man, in the carefully planned and executed manner, confirms what is certain… which is the strength of the activity of the regional intelligence services, especially the Mossad, which can – as has appeared since the liquidation of the “Hamas” leader Saleh Al-Arouri – reach its goals inside Lebanon, and also inside Syria and Iraq, with all Confidence and ease.
The Mossad exists, is active, and has a large hand… as they say in the Lebanese colloquial language. Israel understands what the displacement of tens of thousands of southern Shiites into Lebanon will mean if the border situation explodes, especially in the overlapping and sectarianly troubled areas. Therefore, the possibility of internal strife should not be dismissed… if it is required by Israel and with American and European complicity.
In any case, this “scenario” may naturally apply to Jordan and Syria as well.
This is because the maps of 1920, after the end of World War I, created the current borders between Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq. Since 2003, Iran has actually accomplished the “removal” of these borders through its control over Iraq, then placing its hand on Syria, which was transformed into a “bridge” linking the two Iranian presences controlling Iraq and Lebanon. Then, after the world remained silent about Tehran and Moscow attacking the Syrian people’s uprising in 2011, Tehran launched a massive and ongoing settlement process in many parts of Syria.
On the other hand, Tehran has tightened its grip on Iraq, and some Iraqi-Iranian armed factions are escalating the directive today targeting Jordan, directly, from the east. Here, the emotional and nationalist reaction of many is understandable, and even appreciated… but “the devil is in the details,” as they say. I do not doubt for a moment that the extremist “transfer” Israeli leaders do not mind the collapse of the Jordanian entity if this collapse would facilitate the final eastward displacement of the Palestinians of the West Bank.
The same “scenario” applies to the restructuring of Lebanon after the expulsion of the people of the “border” Shiite majority northward into the Lebanese interior… in order to confuse the situation and mobilize instincts.
It can also be exported to Syria, which has become, in reality, a country without sovereignty, with influence distributed between the Russians in the northwest (the Alawite mountains, Wadi al-Nadhara, and the coastal cities), the Turks in the region extending from Idlib and Aleppo to the Euphrates River, and the Americans and Kurds in the regions east of the Euphrates (Al-Hasakah and Raqqa governorates). And northern Deir ez-Zor), then the “Iranian corridor” from Baghdad and Albukamal towards Beirut, passing through Damascus, and only southern Syria remains outside of this equation, i.e. the Hauran Plain (Daraa) and Hauran Mountain (Suwayda).
We are living in difficult times that are open to all possibilities, in the absence of the Arab ability to control events, crazy Israeli extremism that sees no one to restrain it, and helpless international institutions living under complicit, deficient, or populist leaders, and all of this in an American presidential election year unlike all years and all elections. !
2024-04-13 23:08:27
#post1920 #entities #withstand #major #regional #explosion
