Unpredictable Weather: Massachusetts Snow Forecast Shifts as Dual Jet Streams Influence Storm’s Track
There are times when the forecast delights and times when it defies logic. This is one of the latter. Guidance was very confident in most of Massachusetts seeing 6 to 12 inches of snow. But as the track shifted south, the confidence vanished. Why the shift? Why the backpedaling? It’s easy to say, “Weather is variable. Changes happen.” But the crux of it is the dual jet streams influencing the storm’s track.
At first, we saw a very strong storm manipulating the steering currents as it goes along. As time went along, the storm appeared weaker, and now it is at the mercy of the steering currents. One jet stream from the north eventually got the upper hand and shifted the storm south.
The evolution of the pattern is the weakest link in weather forecasting. The proverbial “butterfly flapping its wings” that MIT professor Ed Lorenz coined as chaos was firmly in play here. But despite the uncertainty, we can still expect some accumulation and there will still be some impact to travel and cleanup.
The storm will start off with rain in some spots, while others will see wet snow that may have a hard time accumulating. However, as the storm progresses toward late morning and early afternoon, we can expect a switch to snow and a majority of the accumulation. Along the coast, winds will ramp up with gusts to 40+ at the water’s edge.
Coastal flooding is expected at the 2 p.m. high tide, but it will fall short of the major flooding experienced last month. The storm is expected to wrap up late Tuesday afternoon and evening on Cape Cod. Following the storm, temperatures will drop below freezing, leading to possible slippery spots on Wednesday morning.
Cold weather will remain a factor throughout the end of the week. Another batch of light snow is expected late Thursday and early Friday.
As the unpredictable weather continues to challenge forecasters, it serves as a reminder of the intricate nature of meteorology. While technology and models have significantly improved weather predictions, there are still factors like dual jet streams that can throw off forecasts. Despite the challenges, meteorologists strive to provide accurate information to help people prepare and stay safe during extreme weather events.
