Unprecedented June Tropical Storm Activity Raises Concerns for the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Forecasters are closely monitoring the development of one and potentially two tropical systems over the record warm waters between the Caribbean and West Africa. The National Hurricane Center is predicting that the first system will likely grow into Hurricane Bret.

The first system became a tropical depression on Monday, with sustained winds close to 35 mph. It is expected to strengthen into a hurricane within the next few days.

The appearance of two tropical systems in June is unusual, and the abnormally warm water is expected to play a major role in this year’s hurricane season. David Roth, a forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center, explained that two separate waves have come out at the right latitude for June development.

The first system is currently located about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, which includes the nations of Saint Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and Grenada. The National Hurricane Center predicts that this system, named Tropical Storm Bret, could potentially hit the islands within several days.

The second system is approximately 750 miles behind the first one. While it is unlikely to reach land, conditions are favorable for it to develop into a legitimate storm due to the warm waters and lack of strong vertical wind shear. Roth stated that it has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone and is showing some organization.

If the distance between the two systems closes to about 500 miles, there is a possibility that they could merge as one absorbs the other.

The warm temperatures in the Main Development Region, the prime breeding area for major hurricanes, are record-breaking for mid-June. Hurricane expert Michael Lowry noted that it is extraordinary to see waters in this region as warm in June as they typically are in early September. He predicts that this condition will be a significant factor in this year’s hurricane season.

Typically, tropical systems in this portion of the Atlantic basin do not appear until August or September. While their development in June is not unheard of, the occurrence of two tropical storms in June would be unprecedented for the region. Only three out of 79 June storms since the 19th century have formed east of the Lesser Antilles, with two of them occurring in the past six years.

As the hurricane season unfolds, it is crucial for residents in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands to closely monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and have their hurricane plans in place.

How do unusually warm water temperatures contribute to the formation and intensification of tropical systems such as Hurricane Bret in the Caribbean and West Africa region?

Planners are carefully monitoring the development of one or possibly two tropical systems in the area between the Caribbean and West Africa, where waters are exceptionally warm. The National Hurricane Center believes that the first system is on track to become Hurricane Bret. On Monday, the system formed into a tropical depression with wind speeds of about 35 mph. It is anticipated that the system will intensify into a hurricane in the coming days.

The appearance of two tropical systems in June is not a common occurrence, and experts attribute this anomaly to the unusually warm water temperatures. These warmer-than-average waters are expected to have a significant impact on this year’s hurricane season. David Roth, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Weather Prediction Center, stated that this phenomenon will be a crucial factor to watch as the season progresses.