Unmanned aerial vehicle butterfly effect… Russia also intervened, citing the ‘North Korea-Russia Treaty’ [view]

The ‘Pyongyang infiltration drone incident’ originating from North Korea appears to be a detonator that will affect regional security. When North Korea suddenly criticized the Americans, saying, “Let the Americans take responsibility” (Kim Yo-jong, vice-minister of the Workers’ Party on the 14th), immediately afterward, Russia also invoked the “North Korea-Russia Treaty” (Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty) and said, “The Korean Peninsula He intervened, saying, “I will prevent a situation from becoming dangerous.”

‘Kim Jong-un’ is trying to use this drone incident to solidify the ‘two hostile states theory’, ‘Putin’ is trying to secure the ‘right to intervene in the Korean Peninsula’ before the US presidential election, and while attaching importance to alliance defense pledges, he is trying to somehow prevent an accidental conflict scenario on the Korean Peninsula just before the presidential election. There are concerns that ‘Biden’s’ concerns may cause a dynamic effect and the situation may flow in an unexpected direction. In particular, if Putin encourages a Kim Jong-un-style ‘inter-Korean disconnection scenario’ to increase his presence, the geopolitical crisis on the Korean Peninsula could be further amplified.

North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an ‘important statement’ on the evening of the 11th, claiming, “South Korea has committed a military provocation by infiltrating the capital of the Republic, Pyongyang, with a drone and distributing ‘leaflets’ against North Korea.” Labor Newspaper. News 1.

“We will prevent danger based on the North Korea-Russia treaty.”

On the 14th (local time), Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mariya Zakharova issued a statement quoting North Korea’s recent claim that a South Korean drone invaded Pyongyang’s skies and distributed anti-North Korea leaflets. He said, “Seoul’s (South Korea’s) actions cannot help but be viewed as a serious infringement on North Korea’s sovereignty and interference in internal affairs aimed at destroying the legitimate state and political system of an independent country and depriving it of its right to independent development.” This is a direct reproduction of North Korea’s position that defined the South Korean military as the ‘main culprit’ even though the actual facts are not yet clear.

“Russia will continue to play a constructive role to prevent the deepening of risks on the Korean Peninsula and to return the situation to a positive one, including based on the North Korea-Russia treaty,” he said. It could be seen as a suggestion that the ‘North Korea-Russia Treaty’, which was concluded last June and is considered to be the first to guarantee Russia the right to intervene in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula, can be applied to this drone incident.

Maria Zakharova, Spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In fact, Article 3 of the North Korea-Russia Treaty allows related discussions to be held upon request by one side, provided that “a direct threat of an act of armed aggression against either side is created.” In this case, it is specified that “coordinate each other’s positions,” “cooperate in eliminating the created threat,” and “operate the negotiation channel without delay.” On the 11th, North Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed the South Korean drone intrusion and defined it as a ‘severe military attack.’ Looking at the text alone, there is room for North Korea to claim that it constitutes an ‘act of armed aggression’, which is a condition for activating Article 3 of the North Korea-Russia Treaty.

In addition, the reason why Spokesperson Zakharova emphasized North Korea’s ‘sovereignty’ and ‘right to independent development’ in her statement today may have been in consideration of the UN Charter, which is a condition for Russia’s intervention under the North Korea-Russia Treaty. Article 51 of the Charter stipulates that ‘in the event of an armed attack on a member state of the United Nations, the right to individual and collective self-defense may be granted.’

In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un signed the ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty.’ Sputnik. AP.

Government “deeply regrets Russia’s unilateral claims”

The government said on the 15th, “We express deep regret that the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs supported North Korea’s one-sided claims, which have not even been confirmed to be true, and spoke of infringement on North Korea’s sovereignty and interference in its internal affairs,” adding, “All responsibility for the recent series of events lies with North Korea.” “We are in North Korea, which threatens its own people with nuclear weapons and does not hesitate to use aggressive words and actions,” he pointed out.

The government then pointed out, “We urge Russia to explain why it did not take any action in the past when North Korea conducted several drone provocations against South Korea.” Previously, North Korea infiltrated unmanned aerial vehicles into South Korea in 2014, 2017, and 2022, and the remains of unmanned aerial vehicles were discovered in Korea in 2014 and 2017.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government Complex Seoul. News 1.

Make the most of treaties ahead of the US presidential election

The reason Russia broke its silence and ‘joined’ the drone incident may have been an intention to influence the dynamics of the region. The relationship between North Korea and Russia could change significantly depending on the results of the US presidential election on the 5th of next month.

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, previously pledged several times that he would “end the war in Ukraine as soon as I am elected.” While it is expected that North Korea-Russia relations may change at the end of the war, Putin may aim to expand his ‘stake’ on the Korean Peninsula before then.

Lee Byeong-cheol, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies, analyzed, “Whether the North Korea-Russia treaty will be effective or will be reduced to a mere document gathering dust depends on the U.S.-Russia relationship, which will be reestablished following the U.S. presidential election next month.”

Coincidentally, on the same day, Putin began ratifying the North Korea-Russia treaty. According to local Russian media such as TASS, Putin submitted a bill for ratification to the House of Representatives on this day. North Korea held the Supreme People’s Assembly, the equivalent of South Korea’s National Assembly, on the 7th, but no news regarding the treaty was made public. However, in North Korea, the treaty can be ratified by Kim Jong-un ex officio. This means that both countries can ratify at the same time at any time.

Drone incident intertwined with North Korea-Russia treaty

If North Korea and Russia use the drone incident as an excuse to invoke a new treaty while North Korea threatens South Korea with a “harsh price” every day, it could lead to a shake-up in the security situation in the region. There is a possibility that the interests of Kim Jong-un, who is trying to take full advantage of this situation to inflame hostility toward South Korea, and Putin, who is trying to further expand his influence on the Korean Peninsula, coincide. Kim Yo-jong’s somewhat strange claim the day before that “the United States should take responsibility” for the drone incident raises the possibility that North Korea and Russia will even take issue with joint South Korea-US training based on the treaty between the two countries in the future.

On the 14th, Rodong Sinmun, the organ of the North Korean Workers’ Party, reported that the entire country was boiling with ‘retaliation fever’ after hearing the news that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had issued an ‘important statement’ on the 12th regarding the ‘South Korean drone intrusion incident’. Labor Newspaper. News 1.

However, both North Korea and Russia are still waiting to see South Korea’s response, only hinting at the possibility of joint action rather than direct action. Spokesperson Zakharova also focused on diplomatic rhetoric urging easing of tensions, saying, “South Korean authorities must take North Korea’s warning very seriously.”

Oh Gyeong-seop, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, “Russia appears to have expressed its position that it will take action in accordance with the North Korea-Russia treaty when the situation worsens in order to continue receiving support from North Korea regarding the war in Ukraine.” “It is difficult to advance to this actual joint military action,” he said.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said, “Russia is reluctant to be dragged into a conflict on the Korean Peninsula, so it will try to keep its distance to the extent possible.” He also added, “North Korea also has a high burden of a head-on conflict with the Yoon Seok-yeol government, so it may suddenly bring in the United States and say ‘water.’ “It appears that he was trying to ‘ride’ and internally sent a signal to ‘stop him.’”

Meanwhile, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell will visit Korea on the 16th and a meeting of the Vice Foreign Ministers of Korea, the United States, and Japan will be held in Seoul. While the United States has expressed its will to jointly defend itself against North Korean provocations, it is expected that it will focus on situation management as it believes that the Korean Peninsula should not fall into armed conflict with the presidential election just around the corner. The United Nations Command (UN Command) also took a cautious stance the day before, saying, “We are investigating in strict compliance with the Armistice Agreement.”

Reporter Park Hyun-ju [email protected]