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University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index: September 2021 Update and Impact of Auto Strike and Government Shutdown

The University of Michigan index stands at 68.1 points. This is a little better than the 67.7 which had been anticipated by the preliminary estimate, as well as by analysts.

Consumer confidence in the United States was a little more solid than expected in September, but nevertheless deteriorated compared to August, between the automobile strike and the probable paralysis of the federal administration from Sunday.

The index stands at 68.1 points, according to the final estimate made by the University of Michigan and published Friday.

This is a little better than the 67.7 which had been anticipated by the preliminary estimate, as well as by analysts, according to the Market Watch consensus.

“A slight decline in consumer expectations regarding their personal finances was offset by a slight improvement in economic conditions” for the months to come, said the director of the survey, Joanne Hsu, quoted in the press release.

“Consumers are understandably uncertain about the trajectory of the economy, given multiple sources of uncertainty, for example regarding the possible shutdown and (strike) in the auto industry,” she added.

The union representing employees in the automobile sector, the UAW, has in fact launched an unprecedented strike at three giants of the sector: General Motors, Ford and Stellantis.

Another danger awaits the American economy from Sunday: the “shutdown”, or paralysis of the federal administration, if Republicans and Democrats in Congress do not agree on the government budget, the subject of a political battle.

The index measuring the perception of current economic conditions fell to 71.4 points, while that measuring expectations for the months to come increased to 66.0 points.

Furthermore, the rebound in inflation over the summer, due in particular to the rise in gasoline prices, weighs on consumers’ perception of price developments for the year to come. . This perception is now at its lowest since March 2021.

Inflation rose in August to 3.7% over one year and 0.6% over one month, according to the CPI index, to which pensions are indexed. According to the PCE index, also published on Friday and favored by the American central bank (Fed), it stood at 3.5% over one year.

2023-09-29 15:18:51


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