This is not the least of the paradoxes: despite record arrests at the border with Mexico last year, which inflamed the political debate, the deficit of immigrant labor recorded in recent years in the United States is just filled.
After a shortage of labor of foreign origin estimated at around 2 million people at the start of the pandemic, notably following the restrictive policies of Donald Trump, the rebound in immigration – partly illegal – last year allowed a return to the long-term average, underlines a recent study by Evgeniya Duzhak, economist at the San Francisco Federal Reserve.
“This analysis suggests that, if the recovery in immigration flows continues, it could further ease the strain on the labor market, albeit to a modest extent,” she further concludes.
Negative natural balance
According to last digits from Pew Research, published in 2021, there were some 10.5 million illegal aliens in the United States in 2017, nearly a quarter (23%) of the foreign-born people present in the country and 3 % of the global population.
In a report published in January, the budgetary office – and not partisan – of the Congress also draws up prospects less alarmist and divisive than the political debates in Washington. Between 2023 and 2053, the CBO forecasts net migration of 1.1 million people per year. A measure that takes into account illegal immigrants – 220,000 anticipated per year for the next decade, or a quarter of net flows, according to the study.
After the pandemic and its restrictions on movement which created a rebound in illegal entries last year and probably this year, the rate would thus be much lower than that of the 2000-2006 period (1.5 million net entries per year ), and barely higher than that of the 2007-2019 period (1 million).
Over the next ten years, three-quarters of population growth would come from immigration, and would finally be totally responsible for it from 2042, when the natural balance would become negative (more deaths than births on American soil ).
Work visas
If these projections remain fragile to establish over a long period, the population would ultimately increase from 336 million people this year to 373 million in thirty years, i.e. a growth of 0.3% per year, three times slower than over the past forty years. , points out the CBO study .
With a profile of new arrivals generally in the prime of life, immigration will support the growth of the active population, implicitly points out the budget office: the over 65s, who today represent 34% of the 25 -64 years, will represent 46% in thirty years…
After a pandemic that has slowed the issuance of work or immigration visas, friction persists for the most qualified candidates for entry. The United States, for example, has reduced the duration of visas for investors, and the layoffs in tech have highlighted the precariousness of employees, forced to leave the American territory if they do not find a new employer within two months. . On the other hand, the administration is working to make certain procedures more flexible, for example by removing the obligation to leave the United States to renew one’s visa.
