– My gut feeling says Donald Trump. And I guess that’s true for a lot of nervous Democrats, too.
Nate Silver writes that in another column The New York Times. He is an election statistician and has defeated the last five presidential elections in the US, from 2008 to 2020.
WHAT DOES THE GUT SAY?: Statistician Nate Silver predicts the presidential election
Photo: Screenshot (FiveThirtyEight)
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Silver is the founder of the site FiveThirtyEight which collects and analyzes all polls in the United States on their website. He left the site in 2023 and now publishes his analyzes on Silver Magazine.
Although the polls show a fair fight, Silver points out that his gut feeling points to a Trump victory.
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He explains that the polls can be misleading, as they often underestimate Trump’s support. Silver believes that many of Trump’s voters are not participating in polls, which could have affected the results of the last two elections.
Despite the fact that Silver believes that Trump can win, he emphasizes that the election is still very fair, and that it is impossible to say with certainty who will win.
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The presidential election in the United States will be held on November 5 this year.
2024-10-24 07:57:00
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