After the highly publicized case of the Chinese “spy balloon”, how to analyze the strategy of US foreign policy in the medium and long term and internal political positions ? Flore Kay, author, and Laure Pallez, elected representative of the French in Florida and co-founder of the think tank France and the world in commontry their hand at it in this forum written within the framework of the partnership just established between the Jean-Jaurès Foundation and this think tank.
The standoff between China and the United States is tense. The flight of the Chinese spy balloon over American territory is, for Republicans in Washington, tangible proof that the regime in Beijing poses a threat to the national security of the United States. Two discourses currently oppose Washington: the Republicans believe that China does not care about having diplomatic relations with the United States and that its priority is to spy on the striking power of American armaments; for the Democrats, the situation is not easy: similar balloons, very inefficient in spy technology, have already flown over American soil in the past without causing as much of a stir. It is possible that this ball was deflected from its route by mistake. China also seemed relatively embarrassed by this affair and expressed “regrets”.
Joe Biden’s slow decision to destroy the spy balloon is criticized by Republicans and has sparked a political crisis in Washington. The Democrats are trying to avoid an escalation of the dialectic with Xi Jinping’s government. The Chinese leader is himself in trouble in his country following the anti-containment riots. The flight over the balloon could then be a malicious act on the part of high dignitaries of the Chinese army to weaken Xi Jinping.
Yet beyond this event, which is already having political consequences in the United States, there is a certain consensus in Washington about China, even as 690 billion dollars in exchange for trade goods between the United States and China were reached in 2022 – a new record – according to statistics recently released by the US Department of Commerce. Republicans and Democrats agree on many subjects: the necessary pressure to be exerted on China so that it ceases its imports of Iranian oil, the supply of non-lethal equipment for Russian forces in Ukraine, as well as the need to arm Taiwan and control TikTok. Following the spy balloon affair, it is a safe bet that a bipartisan law obliging TikTok to sell its American subsidiary to American investors will be voted on soon.
If tensions are exacerbated with China, one can imagine a rapprochement between the United States and Europe. The Biden administration released its first National Security Strategy on October 12, 2022. The goal for the United States is to “surpass” economically (outcompete) China and to “impede” (constrain) Russia.
The strategy details three lines of action for the United States: first, strengthen American power by investing domestically. This includes investments but also purchase bonuses, especially for electric cars, but exclusively those produced in the country. Europe is crying out for protectionism, and Emmanuel Macron broached the subject with Joe Biden during the official state visit in December 2022. It does not appear that the American position has been shaken up. Moreover, Joe Biden took advantage of his State of the Union address on February 7, 2023 to promote his Inflation Reduction Actwhich Europe hates, such as the completion of his two years in office.
Second line of action, the United States will strengthen cooperation with its traditional allies, including the Europeans, particularly militarily in Ukraine. Both share transatlantic values with the United States: the protection of human and workers’ rights, the defense of a sovereign country in the event of aggression, the fight against climate change. In terms of defence, the Biden administration is therefore satisfied to see Europe rearming and “strengthening the pillar of European defense within NATO”. This will allow the Americans to strengthen their military presence elsewhere than in Europe, such as in Japan and the Philippines to protect Taiwan.
Finally, the third line of action, the United States must modernize its military and intelligence tools. Following the balloon affair, Washington could quickly launch an aggressive rearmament program to increase its own stockpile of nuclear warheads (currently 3,750 compared to 6,000 for Russia and 290 for France). At best, the United States can produce between 50 and 80 nuclear warheads a year. The modernization of military equipment is also a priority. The stakes are extremely strategic if the United States does not want to find itself in a position of weakness vis-à-vis Russia and China in 2050, which would then be in a position of strength within the framework of a new cold war.
Xi Jinping’s stated goal is to outdo the United States militarily within the next thirty years, approximately by 2050. In an article by The Hill, Matthew R. Costlow, an analyst at the National Institute for Public Policy, points to the faster-than-expected increase in Chinese nuclear armament. In 2020, the US Department of Defense estimated that China would reach a stockpile of 400 nuclear warheads in 2030. This is a serious underestimate, because it was in 2021 that China arrived at this number, in just one year! On February 7, 2023, the US Military Strategic Command Center announced that China had just surpassed the United States in the number of intercontinental ballistic missile launch platforms.
Economically outperforming China in a technological competition will not be enough, nor will it be enough to hamper Russia militarily: the United States will also have to remain superior in military equipment compared to China. Beijing’s intentions are known and quite determined. Washington must act quickly to remain in a position of strength.
