UNICEF: Gaza has become the most dangerous place in the world for children

Despite the scenarios put forward for “post-war Gaza,” the picture is still “bleak and bad” regarding who will rule this inflamed and densely populated area, according to an analysis that indicates that Hamas itself “may not seem interested” in returning to ruling Gaza.

The analysis, published by the American magazine “Foreign Affairs”, says that it is difficult to implement the scenarios that some are talking about, for reasons related to an imposed reality on the ground, pointing to a remarkable part related to the Hamas movement, and that it “does not seem important in returning to ruling Gaza,” in contrast. It “wants to manage matters from behind the scenes, in parallel with maintaining its military strength and infrastructure.”

In more than one report, Western media reviewed the possibilities for “post-war Gaza,” the most notable of which was the deployment of Arab forces in the besieged Strip, in addition to UN forces, and other options related to the Palestinian Authority assuming the reins of administration or Israel assuming full security responsibility, as announced by President Its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, Joost Hiltermann, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the International Crisis Group, says in the analysis he wrote for Foreign Affairs magazine that there are no easy solutions at hand, whether for Israel, which continues its war, or for the United States of America, which has been proposed since today. The first to the last is a question: What is the plan for the next day for Gaza after the end of the war?

Is Hamas concerned?

Since the beginning of the war until now, a military scene has loomed over Hamas, whether with regard to the decisions it takes or the movements it announces, most of which are related to the field, as it announces from day to day targeting Israeli army vehicles and tanks in the Gaza Strip.

The movement rarely addressed its management paths in the sector, during the past days of the war, or when this issue was raised within the post-war scenarios, in which no name was reserved for the movement, while it gave options about the party that would be its alternative.

On the part of the movement, the Palestinian writer and political analyst, Ibrahim Al-Madhoun, believes that Hamas “is now interested in managing the battle, confronting the Israeli aggression, and trying to prevent the occupation from controlling Gaza and achieving its goals of displacing the Palestinian people.”

Therefore, “it postpones talking and discussing what will happen after the aggression and after the war.”

Al-Madhoun told Al-Hurra website, “Hamas is prepared for all scenarios, and it never proposes to be excluded from any upcoming arrangements.”

“It is open and has complete flexibility with everyone in a way that serves the interests of the Palestinian people and the people of the Gaza Strip,” and its administrative and governmental apparatus is still working dynamically and effectively and in accordance with the emergency system, according to Al-Madhoun.

Despite the lack of stability, Al-Madhoun adds that “the movement is capable of management, and it is difficult to ignore it in the Gaza Strip.”

But Dr. Amer Al-Sabaila, a university professor and geopolitical analyst, believes that Hamas “will undoubtedly not be able to manage the Gaza Strip at the present time.”

In an interview with Al-Hurra website, Al-Sabaila says: “We are talking about a war that destroyed the Gaza Strip, whether in terms of infrastructure or in terms of humanitarian conditions… Without international acceptance, no one can return to the administration of Gaza.”

“We are also talking about a reconstruction project and a humanitarian relief project, and therefore the conversation began early about the civil administrations and the Israeli security role in the Strip. This explains the reality,” according to Al-Sabaila.

Al-Sabaila refers to the initiative announced by Hamas a month ago, “as if it realizes that the idea of ​​managing Gaza is no longer valid,” according to researcher Al-Sabaila.

What is the initiative?

On November 2, the movement presented, according to the head of its political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, to the mediators “a comprehensive vision that includes opening the political path to establishing an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital and the right to self-determination.”

Haniyeh said in a televised speech published at the time, “The vision presented by the movement includes a deal to exchange prisoners, open crossings, and a ceasefire.”

Researcher Al-Sabaila explains, “It is clear that Hamas is looking to be a representative of the Palestinian people, which is reflected in the desire to whitewash prisons and the deals that go beyond them to include all Palestinians.”

Al-Sabaila adds, “I think it will seek to be part of the political scene, but in terms of administration, it may not be able to do that.”

The writer Al-Madhoun believes that “if Israel remains the occupying force in Gaza, Hamas will continue to confront and resist it.”

“The movement considers itself to be part of a national liberation movement project, and one of its priorities is not power, but one of its priorities is for the people to live in freedom and dignity and for the political situation to be arranged in accordance with the overall Palestinian national project,” according to Al-Madhoun.

While Al-Madhoun considers that it is too early to talk about “post-war Gaza,” he believes that “Hamas is still resisting up to this moment and is in control, has command and control, and is able to survive and continue in different circumstances and scenarios.”

But former Pentagon official David De Roche sees the scene of the movement in Gaza different from what was mentioned above.

He told Al-Hurra website: “No Iranian agent has ever shown any interest in achieving stability or governing the region it controls except as a means of making profit.”

Regarding the question of whether or not Hamas is still looking to run Gaza, Des Roches points out that “the movement’s leaders say that taking care of civilians is the mission of the United Nations and that they are only interested in the struggle.”

Therefore, “it will continue after the war as an insurgency force and nothing else,” the former US Defense Department official predicts.

“The Authority is ready and Netanyahu: No.”

In the latest positions related to Gaza after the war, the official spokesman for the Palestinian Presidency, Nabil Abu Rudeina, confirmed on Wednesday the Palestinian Authority’s readiness to assume responsibility in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and East Jerusalem, in accordance with what was stipulated in the Oslo Accords.

In statements to Al-Hurra TV, Abu Rudiniyah pointed out that for 30 years, the Palestinian Authority has been sending all of Gaza’s needs, including electricity, water, gas, health, and education. There are 88,000 employees, both active and retired, who receive their pensions from the Palestinian Authority’s budget.

He added: “We are ready to assume our responsibilities in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, as we agreed in Oslo and in accordance with international legitimacy.”

But these statements came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “the Palestinian Authority is not qualified in its current form” to rule Gaza.

Netanyahu accused Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas of not condemning the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, and stated that “some of Abbas’s senior ministers celebrated the attack.”

The Palestinian situation at the present time does not talk about alternatives, but rather about participation and integration, as Al-Madhoun explains, and says, “Hamas is ready to be open to all factions and has relations with everyone.”

He added: “Therefore, there is no alternative to the Hamas movement except Hamas, no alternative to Fatah except Fatah, and no alternative to jihad except jihad,” noting that “the movement fought several previous wars and maintained its management after they were completed.”

Although the current war seems different, Al-Madhoun considered that “Hamas has the ability to exert pressure in major crises and has the ability to restore administrative order and vitality for several reasons, as it is not limited to Gaza only, but rather its leaders are distributed in the West Bank, abroad, and in the Palestinian diaspora.”

On Friday, the Israeli army estimated that it had killed about a thousand Hamas militants, a small part of the force numbering more than 30,000, which it said was in the movement’s ranks before the war.
The current phase of the Israeli military operation in northern Gaza is expected to continue for weeks before the Israeli army heads south, according to a US intelligence assessment provided to Wall Street by an American official.

Attention is currently turning to the “truce deal” that will enter into force on Thursday, and whether it will be extended gradually or end on the fifth day as scheduled.