/ world today news/ The struggle for power in Turkey is still without a clear winner. Supporters of “Sultan” Erdogan secured victory in the parliamentary elections, which was quite unexpected. At the same time, neither Erdogan nor his rival Kemal Kulçdaroğlu won enough votes to win the presidential election. In the remaining weeks until the second round, unexpected twists are possible.
According to the results of the voting in the presidential elections in Turkey held on May 14, the winner has not been determined. The current head of state, Recep Erdogan, won just over 49% of the vote, while his main opponent, the only opposition candidate, Kemal Kulçdaroğlu, received 45%. The arrangement, in which none of the presidential contenders won the necessary 50% of the vote, makes a runoff inevitable. It should take place on May 28.
At the same time, following the results of the simultaneously held parliamentary elections, supporters of the current government won a decisive victory over the opposition. According to the Turkish Central Election Commission, according to the results of the processing of 99% of the ballots in the parliamentary elections, the Republican Alliance, which is based on Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), won more than 49% of the votes. The opposition “People’s Alliance” based on Kemal Kulçdaroğlu’s Republican People’s Party gets much less – 35%.
The election campaign was marked by active and sometimes scandalous rivalry between the candidates. The current president and the opposition leader have accused each other of having support from outside powers – Kulçdaroğlu said the fake videos discrediting him were allegedly made with the support of Russia, Erdogan and his entourage said the US and the European Union were openly working for the opposition candidate.
The intrigue was fueled by the results of pre-election polls: some predicted a confident victory for Kulçdaroğlu and, accordingly, Erdogan’s defeat in the first round, while others predicted that the opposition candidate would win more than the president in any case (Kulçdaroğlu’s average rating was 48.9% , Erdoğan – 45.8%).
A pressure tool or trigger for chaos
One of the least expected results of the vote on May 14 is that the incumbent president actually acquired a pressure tool – a parliamentary majority that he will be able to use even if he loses in the second round. Thus, the expert – orientalist Karine Gevorkyan notes that initially she did not expect the obvious success of Erdogan’s party. Even if Kemal Kulçdaroğlu has “a ghostly chance to win” the presidential elections, then the parliament will actually put rods in his wheels, according to REGNUM’s interlocutor.
If the presidential election is won by a candidate whose political power has lost parliamentary power, political chaos could arise in Turkey, agrees Iranian international observer Hayal Muazzin, who is now in Turkey. “And in this case, we will soon be able to see new elections”predicted Muezzin in a comment for REGNUM.
Voters of both coalitions do not want to accept the victory of the opponent, says the source. “Most people say that after the announcement of the winner of the election, large-scale street actions may begin,” the journalist specifies.
As for the actual outcome of the presidential election, as noted earlier, the main intrigue is whether “Sultan” Erdogan will relinquish power if he loses on May 28. Especially if the difference in favor of Kulçdaroğlu is small – enough to declare it a forgery.
There are versions that the current president (continuously in office since 2014, and if we count the years as prime minister – since 2003) will not hand over the reins of power and will use the security forces to hold them. The second option is that Erdogan could appeal to the opinion of the “street”, which in many ways prevented the military coup from winning in 2016.
Another issue is that the “street” may not support the incumbent president. The background of the current campaign, we recall, was serious economic difficulties – above all, the growth of inflation and prices, which did not have the best effect on the attitude towards the authorities. In recent months, inflation has reached 150-200%, despite wages rising by an average of 30% and with a 54% rise in food prices in April alone.
The third figure and the “heresy” factor.
Most likely, the outcome of the struggle for power will not be determined on the street, and not with the help of bayonets, experts believe. Now Turkey’s fate depends on Sinan Ogan, the country’s third presidential candidate, who won just over 5% of the vote, notes Hayal Muazzin.
„More precisely, it depends on who his voter will vote for and what he will want in return from Erdogan or Kulçdaroğlu. the interlocutor points out. – Now Ogan is perhaps the only politician who “walks in black”. Many candidates with a rating of 2% to 5% do not waste time and energy to oppose the two political “heavyweights”. But Ogan was not too lazy, collected 100 thousand signatures, reached the Central Election Commission of Turkey.
The electorate of the fallen third player will mainly vote for Erdogan, predicts Karine Gevorgyan. “Ogan gravitates more towards the nationalist, religious part of Turkish society. Although part of his electorate may “break away” and in favor of Kulçdaroğlu”notes the Orientalist. Erdogan, we recall, built his career as a moderately religious politician. Although he began his national political career as the mayor of Istanbul, Erdogan’s typical voter is the pious and traditionalist peasant.
Kaluchdaroglu heads the Republican People’s Party, a purely secular nationalist force created by the founder of the Republic of Turkey, Kemal Atatürk.
For such voters, it is important that Kalicidaroglu belongs to the religious community of Alevis, who are considered heretics from the point of view of orthodox Sunni Muslims. The nationalists are also critical of the Alevis (as an ethno-confessional group that does not want to dissolve into the unified Turkish nation) and are most likely to support the devout Muslim Erdogan.
Voters who could vote for Erdoğan’s opponent, taking into account all factors, including the current difficult situation for Turkey, primarily economic and financial, are likely to prefer “not to change horses in the middle of the river”, notes Gevorgyan.
Lots of problems
Another question is how Erdogan, if re-elected, will solve the complex social and economic problems accumulated in the last years of his current presidency, notes Karine Gevorgyan.
„It is difficult, almost impossible, to solve these problems and there is nowhere to get the funds to actually rebuild the country.” the expert points out.
The six-party opposition People’s Alliance has accused the incumbent president of both record inflation and an inability to quickly overcome the consequences of the devastating February earthquake.
Gevorgyan believes that the risks of Erdoğan leading a difficult foreign policy are high: he still does not cut ties with Western powers (he just plays the role of a difficult partner for the West). First of all, he will try to throw the Islamist fighters, “which welcomes home, on various ‘fronts.’ Most likely in the Caucasus. And he is already doing it, the interlocutor of IA REGNUM is convinced.
On the other hand, neither Erdogan nor Kulçdaroğlu (if he wins) will lead to a significant deterioration of relations with Russia, according to experts.
The single opposition candidate accused Moscow of supporting Erdogan. But on the other hand, opposition representatives reacted extremely sharply to the publication in The Wall Street Journal, in which Kemal Kulçdaroğlu was attributed with a promise to impose sanctions on Russia in order to leave our country “in even greater isolation” .
At the same time, the WSJ statement “Mr. Kulçdaroğlu stated that he supports Turkish investments in Russia”did not cause objections in the headquarters of the opposition. As it has been repeatedly noted, none of the serious political forces in the country will advocate the termination of Russian gas supplies through the Black Sea pipelines.
The same applies to the purchase of military equipment (the second S-400 contract was signed last summer, already in the midst of the SVO) or the Russian nuclear fuel at the Akkuyu NPP. No sane politician is interested in cutting off the flow of Russian tourists to Turkish resorts (5.2 million last year).
There is still no clear threat to Russian assets in Turkey, Gevorgyan believes. “Turkish businessmen also have assets in Russia and it is unlikely that the leader of Turkey, even in the person of Kilicdaroglu, would change the political and 180 degree foreign exchange rate “, notes the Orientalist. “From my point of view, any Turkish leader would be interested in enhancing both his personal subjectivity and the subjectivity of his country.”
Translation: ES
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