Ukraine produced 12% of the world’s wheat. Due to the war, this cereal reached a historically high price last Thursday. This good news for Norman cereal farmers is delayed: the price of fertilizers used in conventional agriculture is increasing. Cereal growers and dairy farmers in Normandy are currently experiencing contrasting situations.
With tons of wheat stored under his shed, one could imagine that Thierry Bossuyt, grain farmer in Louvigny near Caen, is one of those happy farmers. Of those who will be able to resell their wheat at prices rarely achieved on the world market since the war in Ukraine broke out. But that would be lacking in nuance. Because this wheat harvest was already sold several months ago, at an interesting price it is true, but not at the 340 euros/tonne reached by world prices in recent days.
And Thierry Bossuyt to recall the obvious: “ for the harvests to come in 2022 and 2023, it will first be necessary to produce wheat. This means buying seeds, but also phytosanitary products and above all fertilizer, which is made from gas. However, we are witnessing a surge in the price of gas because of the war, so there is also a surge in the price of fertilizer. Moreover, if the price of cereals exploded at the time of the invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, it also fell afterwards. The unknown is at what price will this price be maintained in the months to come?
A high selling price on the markets remains a good thing for the business of Norman and French cereal producers. Provided that in their budget, the item of fertilizers but also those of fuel oil to run tractors and agricultural machinery remain contained.
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For 2022, Thierry Bossuyt’s nitrogen reserves are already sleeping under a shed, right next to his wheat. ” We are trying to take a position to sell the 2023 harvest, but as long as we have not hedged the price of fertilizer to produce this wheat, nothing is certain. The ideal would be to sell wheat and buy fertilizer opposite. It’s all about balance then.
« Last year, nitrogen fertilizer was at 300 euros per ton, and today we are at 790 euros, with a big risk of an increase, but also of a shortage! worries Max Vié, breeder of 50 dairy cows in Athis de l’Orne. The fertilizer, he uses it to grow his maize, and for the grass too. He does not grow wheat but he orders it, as well as soya and rapeseed to feed his cows. So the surge in world grain prices since the war in Ukraine worries him.
« I’m never pessimistic but here, I fear that the dairy sector will suffer. If animal feed increases, but also fuel, energy and fertilizers, we will have to pass on these increases. Manufacturers will also want to increase their prices. I wonder what price consumers will be willing to pay to buy milk and yoghurt while shopping… asks Max Vié as a member of the National Federation of Milk Producers.
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But this concern does not color all the minds of dairy farmers. Those who do not have to buy cereals to feed their cattle herds show relative serenity, like Philippe Marie, who raises 90 dairy cows and 50 heifers.
We are 90% self-sufficient thanks to fodder. We buy a few rapeseed cakes produced in France and soybeans, from the USA and Brazil. But in Bessin, we have few links with the Ukrainian and Russian markets.
In the months to come, he will rather watch China: “ we import our minerals such as zinc, manganese, calcium and phosphorus from China, which buys a good part of the 40% of milk production that France exports. We will see what policy applies China, close to Russia, compared to the rest of the world asks the breeder.
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Marianne Lombard also moderates her concern. At the head of a mixed crop-livestock farm – she cultivates 125 hectares and fattens 100 animals – she considers herself ” rather independent: I grow my wheat and I only buy the food supplement in granules. »
Going towards even more autonomy, even total autonomy, is a question that she does not find justified: “ to cultivate wheat, hay, peas and fava beans (for the protein intake necessary for fattening) you need plowing and not just pasture. And it would also require storage… It’s complicated. There is no miracle operating system otherwise we would all have already applied it! she laughs. For Marianne, the profession is by nature extremely dependent on the vagaries of the weather and this crisis reminds us of this, of what is happening in the world. »
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