Unemployment insurance: Unédic reduces its forecasts, negotiations begin

The joint group forecasts a surplus of 300 million euros in 2024. Amount revised down compared to June (+900 million).

The balance would then be 1.8 billion in 2025, 3.5 billion in 2026 and 9.4 billion in 2027, while last year there would be no more withdrawals from the State on the accounts of the diet.

Car beyond the economic context that has deteriorated, the balance of the plan is affected with these State taxes – in the form of lower compensation for exemption -, reinforcing the group. For 2024, it would have been 3.1 billion without these taxes.

In this context, Unédic has a problem to repay his debts, which reached 44.3 billion in 2027 etc still including +Covid debt+when the group undertook urgent measures to support the labor market to the tune of 18.1 billion.

– Back to the front –

These new projections were published as trade unions and employers’ groups began a new round of negotiations at midday on unemployment insurance and the employment of the elderly, with the aim of reaching a decision by 15 November.

The social partners are not starting from a blank page, but from an agreement that ended in November 2023. Signed by the CFDT, FO, the CFTC and employers’ groups, it was not confirmed by the government due to lack of provisions on senators.

The signatories had planned in advance the amount of savings to be made on high unemployment: 440 million euros over the period 2024-2027.

These savings were to be achieved by raising the age thresholds giving entitlement to a two year longer compensation period. But the negotiation failed at a high level in April.

Tuesday’s new unemployment insurance talks were spent updating the cost of the November deal, which was expected to be fiscally fair.

Olivier Guivarch, CFDT negotiator pointed out favorable conditions for negotiation. He noted that an update on the figures shows a few more spending cuts than expected.

Denis Gravouil (CGT) regretted for his part that the savings that came from this agreement harmed the unemployed. Additional savings reached around 800 million euros over four years.

We fully intend to go back to the fronthe warned Mr. Gravouil, pointing problem with clear balance.

On the employment of the elderly, subject deceived with unemployment insurance with the same period of talks, unions and employers agreed on Tuesday night on four topics of talks: social dialogue, mid-career professional interviews, measures to promote employment, measures to organize the end of careers.

The unions, who want progressive pensions, which are not so widespread in France at the moment, are available without the employer refusing (compulsory right), fear as in the spring, conversations stock on this point.

L’impossibility is a red lineconfirmed Eric Chevée (CPME), on the regulatory side. The employers must arrive with the first draft agreement for the next session next Tuesday, and the first text on unemployment insurance later this week.

In the context of an ultra-limited budget, the Minister of Labor Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet asked the social partners to find 400 million euros in additional savings every year.

For Olivier Guivarch (CFDT), the social partners have none not necessarily the time consider this request and this may not be justified when we look at the financial and political balance in general.

On the management side, Mr. Chevée said that it was not the goal to make a cross on this request, Hubert Mongon (Medef) also hope reach the envelope if possible.

If the negotiations fail, the government will take control.

For the CGT the hypothesis of the return of the Attal reform, unanimously declared as violent with the unions, a threat identified by employers more completely virtual.