🕮This is the script of the second part of the Podcast Storytelling Channel[TOGETHER Read Together]EP81 “Underlying Logic”. It is recommended to use it with audio files for better effect:
👉ApplePodcast：TOGETHER Read together: EP81. Why haven’t we received a karma yet? Underlying Logic Part 2 – Lewis on Apple Podcasts
Hello everyone, welcome to Together, let’s read together. I am Lewis. Last time Aileen read “The Underlying Logic of Right and Wrong” with you. Can you think about right and wrong from more perspectives? What I want to share with you today is the second part – the underlying logic of thinking about the problem. Sometimes I think “Why do we prepare the content of the storytelling so hard, but still haven’t received a karma match?” I don’t know what everyone’s reaction will be when they hear my idea, but when I tell Aileen about this idea, I will reply Mine was a burst of laughter, maybe she has something to do with reading “Underlying Logic”! Ha ha!
There are several sub-themes in the underlying logic of thinking about problems. I will choose three or five sub-themes to share with you, namely “four types of speaking”, “injection brainwashing”, “probability thinking” and “mathematical thinking”。
The first sub-theme is “Four Types of Speaking”. The author Liu Run said that what we say can be divided into four types: facts, opinions, positions and beliefs. The first is the fact, the fact is the least controversial objective existence, like “the current indoor temperature is 27 degrees Celsius”, this sentence is a fact.butThe real world is sometimes so complicated that we can’t judge the facts, like a cylinder, we see it as a circle from the top, but from the side, it may look like a rectangle, which can probably show the complexity of the real world. The second type is an opinion, an opinion is our perception of a fact. Just like 27 degrees Celsius today, some people will feel hot, some people will feel cold, but some people may feel just right. Our knowledge structure, the information we have, and our thinking patterns determine our point of view. The third is standpoint, which is a point of view influenced by position and interests. When someone asked me if I was hot, although I felt very hot, if I worked in a property management company and I answered “hot”, the other party would ask me to turn on the air conditioner, so I had to sweat and say: “No, I’m not hot.” in this case,Unless you can have the same position and interests as the other party, it is impossible to reach a consensus. The fourth is belief. Faith is a logical system of its own, because we cannot prove that it is wrong. Everyone has their own beliefs, don’t attack other people’s beliefs. Because, number one, you can’t win; number two, you’ll lose this friend. We can think about what type of words we usually say, are they facts, opinions, positions, or beliefs? Or you can also think about it, when we usually oppose other people’s ideas, is it because what the other person said is different from the facts, or is your point of view or position different?
The second sub-theme is “injection brainwashing”. What is it? Liu Run said that he was often asked several questions: “Mr. Run, my products are the best in the industry, why don’t consumers pay for them?” and “Mr. Run, why are there so few excellent employees in the market now?” , or “Mr. Run, why is it so hard to make money only for swindling and deceitful companies?” If it were you, how would you answer these questions? I may answer: “Maybe your product does not meet the needs of consumers, or the advertisement is not large enough.”, The second question I will answer “There are so few excellent employees, it may be that everyone who is good or bad goes to work in the electronics factory It’s gone.”, and the third question I would say, “Maybe because the company is cheating and abducting, it understands human nature better than you.” Then Liu Run went on to say, my answer like this means that the brain has been injected with their views. What is going on? ! ? Because the three words “why” are the most powerful and most likely to touch the soul among the “Golden Three Questions” (Why, What, How), but they are also the most dangerous questions. For example, if I asked you “Why is the earth round”, how would you answer? Please choose from the following three options: (1) Because of gravity, it keeps all matter as close as possible to the shortest possible distance. (2) It is for the reunion of separated people. (3) Because the earth has experienced too long, its edges and corners have been smoothed by the years. You might choose (1), but appreciate the humor and wit in (2) and (3). So if I asked you: “Why is the earth trapezoidal?” How would you answer? Your first reaction may be: “What? Are you kidding me? How could the earth be trapezoidal? Is this a brain teaser?” You see, the first question “Why is the earth round”, you pay attention The power is in the first half, answering the “why”, and the second question “why the earth is trapezoidal”, but the attention is in the second half, questioning the view of “the earth is trapezoidal”. Why is this so? Because you know the earth is not trapezoidal! However, in most cases, the three words “why” are followed by an opinion that is not so obvious to see whether it is right or wrong. For example, if I ask you: “Why are fat people lazy?”, “Why are electronic products getting cheaper and cheaper, but clothes and shoes are getting more expensive?”, “Why are the incentives mentioned in the book useless?”, “Why is it difficult to live a life after reading so many doctrines?”, “Why did Einstein convert to God in his later years?” Have you also been injected with your views by these questions? In fact, Einstein did not convert to God. ** Putting rumors after the three words “why” is the best way to spread rumors. **Like one day, Wang Xifeng met Du Lala in the tea room. Wang Xifeng said to Du Lala: “Lala, why is the boss always targeting you on purpose recently?” Du Lala’s heart sank immediately, and she quickly thought about what happened, but she just replied lightly: “Maybe It must be that the boss is under a lot of performance pressure recently.” If you were Du Lala, what would you think? We may also see such words on the Internet, “Why can eating leeks cure cancer?”, “Why are people who smoke less likely to get new coronary pneumonia?” When you hear it, what do you think? Going back to the question at the beginning of this paragraph, “Mr. Run, my product is the best in the industry, why don’t consumers buy it?”, “Mr. Run, why are there so few outstanding employees in the market?”, “Run In short, why is it so hard to do business in a down-to-earth manner, only companies that are cheating and swindling?” And the question I thought at the beginning, “Why did we prepare the content of the storytelling so hard, but still haven’t received a job offer?” , have you found out what is being injected into your head?
The third sub-theme to share with you is “probabilistic thinking”. If there are two buttons now, red and blue. Press the red button, and you can take away $1 million directly; press the blue button, there is a half chance that you will get $100 million, but there is a half chance that you will get nothing. Would you choose to press the red button or the blue button? Most people may choose to press the red button to take away $1 million. They are unwilling to take risks for seemingly larger gains, preferring smaller but sure gains. But in fact, this multiple-choice question has a correct answer. The expected value of the red button is 1 million US dollars, and the expected value of the blue button is 50% × 100 million + 50% × 0 = 50 million US dollars, so choosing to press the blue button is a comparison. Rational choice. But what if the blue button is pressed and nothing happens to be selected? If not, I would vomit to death, so Liu Run proposed another method. We can find an investor and sell this opportunity to him at a price lower than the expected value of 50 million U.S. dollars, say 20 million U.S. dollars, so that we can get certainty. If he earns $20 million, he can get an expected profit of $30 million. This is another kind of probabilistic thinking. Liu Run said that on the road of entrepreneurship, even if you do everything right and do everything right, 95% of it still depends on luck. **The idea of ”success as long as you work hard” is considered a failure of thinking. **suspect! This seems to be different from what we think, but from the perspective of probability thinking, when we start a business, from the first day, we have to face the moment of making decisions every day or even every hour. Some decisions feel big to you, others seem trivial. But usually the decisions we face are “incomplete information decisions”, because before making a decision, we don’t know what the outcome of the choice will be. Just like choosing A, there is a 50% possibility of earning 100 yuan, and there is a 30% possibility of choosing B to earn 50 yuan, so should you choose A or B? If you choose A, your expected return is 50%×100=50 yuan; if you choose B, your expected return is 30%×50=15 yuan. Therefore, choosing A is the correct decision. But even if it is a correct decision, there is still a 50% probability that choosing A will not make money. For a decision like A with a 50% success rate, as long as it is done twice, the success rate is only 25%. Therefore, it is not an exaggeration to say that 95% of entrepreneurship depends on luck. So how can you increase your chances of success? Liu Run put forward four points. The first and most important thing is to find the trend of the times. During the Double 11 Shopping Festival in 2018, the total transaction volume of Alibaba was 168.2 billion yuan, which is equivalent to the sum of Mongolia’s two-year GDP. , very shocking. In addition, a figure was also announced that the proportion of orders placed by mobile phones accounted for 90%. It means that we must adapt to the times. On the screen of the mobile phone, we must clearly introduce the products in order to attract customers to place orders. The second factor that increases the success rate of entrepreneurship is strategy. In the past, Chinese enterprises had a very important strategy called follow-up strategy. German manufacturing is doing better, Japan’s service industry is doing better, and the US high-tech industry is doing better. Chinese companies choose to follow suit, which can increase the success rate. But online companies are different. Winners take all when starting a business online. For example, there were many group buying websites before, but in the end, “Meituan” and “Dianping” became the winners. If someone wants to do group buying again now, there is no chance, because no one will invest in start-ups in this field. The third factor that increases the success rate of entrepreneurship is the board’s structural design of the entire company’s management, such as the equity system, partner system, and so on. With a good system, managers can make good decisions and work together. The last factor that increases the success rate of entrepreneurship is management, such as a suitable bonus system, employee incentive plans, and doing some corporate culture and team building. The above four points, finding out the trend of the times, having a good strategy, a good company system and management methods are the factors that can improve the success rate of entrepreneurship.
The last sub-theme to share with you is the calculation method of the probability of success in “Mathematical Thinking”, to supplement the content of “Probability Thinking”. **If the success rate of one thing is 20%, we would want to say that as long as we repeat this thing 5 times, we will be successful, but Liu Run said no, we need to do it 14 times before we can succeed. **Because the success rate of 20% means that the failure rate is 80%. After doing it 14 times, the failure rate will be reduced to 5%, which is close to success. If you want to reduce the failure rate to 1%, you must Do it 21 times. But there is no 100% chance of success in the world, at least a little bit of luck is needed. We often say “do the right thing repeatedly”, which is actually a popular expression of probability theory.
The above are the 3.5 sub-themes I shared with you – “Four Types of Speaking”, “Injection Brainwashing”, “Probabilistic Thinking” and “Mathematical Thinking”. In the next episode, Stacy will share with you the third part – the underlying logic of individual evolution. If you like our program, please give us a five-star praise and recommend it to your friends who also like to read. You are also welcome to leave a message to write down whether you have been “injected brainwashed” by others or your thoughts and opinions on “probability thinking” , I wish you all a happy and beautiful day, read together and see you next time.
