Source: Zhongcai Futures Author: Zhongcai Futures
Research report text
【Fuel oil】
In terms of spot goods in Singapore on March 6, high-sulfur 380CST was US$448.55/ton, an increase of 0.66% from the previous month. 0.5% low-sulfur fuel oil was 597.93 US dollars / ton, an increase of 1.45% from the previous month.
In terms of fuel oil paper goods in Singapore on March 6, the paper goods of high-sulfur 380CST in recent months were 432.51 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.45%. The paper cargo of low-sulfur fuel oil in recent months was US$582.76/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1.58%.
In the international crude oil market, the market’s optimistic attitude towards demand and Russia’s plan to cut production in March made oil prices rise.
In terms of high-sulfur fuel oil, OPEC+ and Russia maintained production cuts, and the supply of high-sulfur fuel oil declined. Supported by domestic refinery demand, and the arrival of peak power generation in the Middle East and South Asia, the future demand will be better.
In terms of inventory, fuel oil in Singapore has been substantially destocked, and the reduction in supply has been combined with destocking. It is expected that high-sulfur fuel oil will continue to strengthen.
In terms of low-sulfur fuel oil, the decline in low-sulfur fuel oil has made refineries less motivated to start operations. The peak season for domestic low-sulfur fuel oil in Japan and South Korea is gradually coming to an end, and the BDI index has risen slightly. Demand has recovered but is weaker than in previous years. Overall, demand growth is limited . With the implementation of the European Union’s sanctions on Russian refined oil products and the diversion of low-sulfur production and the launch of new production capacity in the future, the upside of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited.
It is expected that the trend will fluctuate in a wide range in the short term, with long FU and short LU.
【crude】
On March 7, WTI crude oil futures closed down $3.25, or 4.04%, to $77.21 per barrel. Brent crude futures closed down $3.1, or 3.6%, at $83.08 a barrel.
Oil prices fell sharply yesterday, with large fluctuations in oil prices. Macro factors lead to sharp fluctuations in oil prices. The market is more worried about the Fed’s sharp rate hike than expected, the dollar strengthens, macro factors compete with demand, and oil prices fall.
In the future, demand will compete with macro factors, and demand will still be the main driving force for oil prices to rise. Whether the demand can continue to recover needs to be further tracked and judged by the economic conditions of major countries.
In summary, short-term oil prices fluctuate.
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