Niger Junta Holds Power as ECOWAS Threat of Military Intervention Fades
NIAMEY, Niger (AP) — One week after a deadline passed for mutinous soldiers in Niger to reinstate the country’s ousted president or face military intervention, the junta has not acquiesced. No military action has been taken and the coup leaders appear to have gained the upper hand over the regional group that issued the threat, analysts say.
The West African bloc ECOWAS had given the soldiers that overthrew Niger’s democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum until last Sunday to release and reinstate him or they threatened military action. On Thursday, the bloc ordered the deployment of a “standby” force to restore constitutional rule in Niger, with Nigeria, Benin, Senegal, and Ivory Coast saying they would contribute troops.
But it’s unclear when, how, or if the troops will deploy. The move could take weeks or months to set into motion, and while the bloc decides what to do, the junta is gaining power, some observers say.
“It looks as though the putschists have won and will stay … The putschists are holding all the cards and have cemented their rule,” said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a think tank.
ECOWAS is unlikely to intervene militarily and risk dragging Niger into civil war, he said, adding that ECOWAS and Western countries would instead likely press the junta to agree to a short transition period.
Europe and the United States will have little choice but to recognize the junta to continue security cooperation in the region, Laessing said.
The July 26 coup is seen as a major blow to many Western nations, which viewed Niger as one of its last partners in the conflict-riddled Sahel region south of the Sahara Desert that they could work with to beat back a growing jihadi insurgency linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. The U.S. and France have more than 2,500 military personnel in the region and, together with other European countries, have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in military assistance and training Niger’s forces.
There was still little clarity about what would happen days after ECOWAS announced the “standby” force deployment.
A meeting of the region’s defense chiefs was postponed indefinitely. The African Union is expected to hold a meeting on Monday to discuss Niger’s crisis. The group’s Peace and Security Council could overrule the decision if it felt that wider peace and security on the continent were threatened by an intervention.
The delay of the defense chiefs’ meeting to discuss the “standby” force shows that ECOWAS views the use of force as a last resort, said Nate Allen, an associate professor at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
“Given the likely challenges an intervention would face, (the use of force would) require a high degree of consensus and coordination not just within ECOWAS, but within the African Union and international community writ large,” he said.
But those with ties to the junta say they are preparing for a fight, especially since the soldiers are unwilling to negotiate unless ECOWAS acknowledges its leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who overthrew the president, as the new ruler.
“ECOWAS is demanding that (the junta) immediately release President Bazoum and restore him as head of state. Is this a joke?” said Insa Garba Saidou, a local activist who assists Niger’s new military rulers with their communications and says he is in direct contact with them. “Whether Bazoum resigns or not, he will never be Niger’s president again.”
As time drags on, there is mounting concern for the safety of Bazoum,
What impact has the struggle with Islamist extremism had on the stability and security of the Sahel region?
Has been struggling with Islamist extremism. The region is home to various extremist groups, including the Islamic State and al-Qaida affiliates.
Bazoum, who took office in April after winning the presidential election, had been seen as a key partner in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel. His removal from power has raised concerns about the stability and security of the region.
The junta, led by Colonel Salou Djibo, has justified their coup as a response to the government’s failure to address corruption and insecurity in the country. They have promised to hold elections within the next year and ensure a peaceful transition of power.
However, many believe that the junta is using these claims as a cover to consolidate power and protect their own interests. Critics argue that the coup leaders are simply taking advantage of the political turmoil to further their own agenda.
The international community, including ECOWAS and Western countries, have condemned the coup and called for a return to constitutional order. They have threatened sanctions and military intervention if the junta does not comply.
However, as the days pass without any military action, it seems that ECOWAS’s threat is losing its effectiveness. Analysts believe that ECOWAS is unlikely to intervene militarily, as it could risk further destabilizing the region and potentially leading to a civil war in Niger.
Instead, it is expected that ECOWAS and Western countries will press the junta to agree to a short transition period and hold elections as soon as possible. This approach aims to restore constitutional order without resorting to military force.
In the meantime, the junta is gaining more power and control over the country. Some observers believe that it is only a matter of time before the international community recognizes the junta in order to continue security cooperation in the region.
The situation in Niger remains fluid, and the international community is closely monitoring the developments. The outcome will have significant implications for the stability and security of the Sahel region as a whole.
The uncertain future of Niger hangs in the balance as the junta refuses to yield to the threat of military intervention.