The growth prospects of the eurozone countries in the second half of the year could be below expectations. According to the most pessimistic economists, 2023 could end with a rise in GDP of less than 1%, 0.9% for the OECD, 0.8% for the International Monetary Fund. Prospects of a recession that are worrying.
One’s fault war in Ukraine that continues to fuel uncertainty, with energy costs that after a period of apparent calm are returning to rise, with a covid emergency that for many could raise their heads again in the autumn with a new wave that we don’t know what it will be like but perhaps could lead to a new increase in infections even if with fewer symptoms. But it is also the fault of the choices of the Bce to tighten access to credit by increasing interest rates 9 times over the course of a year for a total of 425 basis points. Rates that apparently will rise again throughout 2023 and will lower demand, consumption and investments.
Then there are countries like the Germania for years the economic locomotive of the whole of Europe which has been standing still for some time with the four arrows in stagnation and it is not known for how long. and then theWhen which has just entered a technical recession. The Eurozone presents a rather uneven scenario because alongside scenarios such as those of Germany and the Netherlands we find countries such as Spain e Ireland where, on the other hand, growth is solid and constant.
There is a lot of uncertainty in view of the future and the incoming macroeconomic data are not comforting. Zero growth in Germany affects the economic growth of the entire eurozone. The rate hike by the ECB is having effects on all countries even if the real results will be seen in the long term. The increase in the cost of money discourages investing in the future precisely at a time when it would be necessary to give a jolt to the economy.
Record failures in the second quarter
And then there is the data on bankruptcies in Europe which in the second quarter of the year recorded a real record with an increase of 8.4%, the all-time high since 2015, the year in which this data type.
Among the causes of corporate bankruptcies is a world that changed after the pandemic emergency with various sectors that went into difficulty and never recovered. The numbers remain somewhat high in all sectors but in some cases, such as the hotel or transport sector, the increase is more noticeable with a real boom. The same goes for the industrial, financial services or hospitality sector. On the other hand, the data in the construction sector are decreasing, demonstrating that real estate investments are going well.
In the rest of the world, too, the situation is not calm. The Chinese economy is struggling and growth expectations are revised downwards, also due to a geopolitical tension in Asia that is growing more and more. In the United States, the Fed is continuing with its rate hike policy and will probably do so again in September. A choice that will probably also be confirmed by the ECB. The president Christine Lagarde he said that decisions will be taken from meeting to meeting on the basis of incoming data but this inflation, which is still high albeit declining, is thought to push for a new increase in September.
2023-08-22 09:33:00
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