UN experts on climate change have prepared a large report on the situation with global warming and its consequences.
The past decade was the hottest in the past 125 thousand years / photo REUTERS
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The global warming on earth is developing faster than anticipated, and humanity is almost entirely to blame for this.
This is stated in a climate report published on Monday by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC) write BBC and Liga.net.
3,949 page report approved by 195 countries of the world.
“There is no doubt that the atmosphere, ocean and land have been warmed up by human activity,” the report said.
The published report claims that the past decade was the hottest in the past 125,000 years.
Scientists warn that without decisive action to reduce emissions, the world will fail the Paris Climate Agreement’s goal of keeping global average temperatures within 1.5 ° C above pre-industrial levels by the middle of the 21st century.
Without decisive action to reduce emissions, the world will fail the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement / photo REUTERS
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According to new forecasts by experts, the average temperature of the Earth’s surface under all five scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 1.5 ° C or 1.6 ° C by 2030. This is 10 years earlier than previously thought.
According to the optimistic scenario, the threshold of 1.5 ° С will be overcome by one tenth of a degree, and according to the pessimistic scenario, by almost a degree. At the same time, scientists note that in the case of an optimistic scenario, global temperatures after exceeding 1.5 ° C will fall to 1.4 ° C by 2100.
But if in the next 20 years the current rates of deforestation and emissions into the atmosphere continue, humanity will face a warming of 2 ° C and catastrophic consequences by the end of the century. Among these is the rise in sea level by half a meter in the 21st century and by almost two meters by 2300. At the same time, it is possible that due to the melting of glaciers in the worst scenario with emissions, the ocean level may rise to two meters by 2100.
Ocean level may rise up to two meters by 2100 / photo REUTERS
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Even if global warming can be kept within 1.5 ° C, the frequency of weather cataclysms will be unprecedented in historical terms, scientists say. For example, in September there will be practically no ice left in the Arctic, and this will almost inevitably happen at least once before 2050 under any scenario of reducing emissions, the report says.
The scientists add that the goals of the Paris Agreement are also jeopardized by the failure to reduce emissions of methane, which is the second most important greenhouse gas. Methane does not stay in the atmosphere as long as CO2, but retains heat much more efficiently. CH4 levels in the atmosphere are now at their highest in at least 800,000 years.
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At the same time, scientists estimate the impact of natural sources of climate warming, such as the Sun and volcanic eruptions, as close to zero.
At the same time, experts believe that even if humanity immediately and sharply cuts emissions, some processes are irreversible for the next centuries, if not millennia. We are talking about the temperature and level of the world’s oceans, as well as the area of the ice cover.
The report says that carbon dioxide sinks such as forests, oceans and soil, show signs of satiety… Therefore, the level of anthropogenic carbon absorbed by them is likely to decrease.
Scientists warn that further global warming caused by human activity will cause an even more severe “swing” between drought and floods, cold and heat. Humanity will face an increase in the intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, hurricanes, and forest fires.
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Throughout the twenty-first century, scientists expect the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOS) to slow down. It is a system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean that transfers heat from the tropics to the northern hemisphere and cold to the southern.
Scientists doubt that AMOS will stop completely. But if that happens, European winters will become harsher, monsoon seasons could be disrupted, and water levels in the North Atlantic will rise significantly.
The IPCC report recalled that according to studies by paleoclimatologists, 125 thousand years ago, when the atmosphere was as warm as it is today, the ocean level was probably 5-10 meters higher. And 3 million years ago, when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere corresponded to the current level, and the temperature was 2.5-4 ° C higher, the sea level was 25 meters higher.
Disaster can be avoided if the world acts quickly and takes action in the next 10 years / photo REUTERS
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Alexander Topchy
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