Riots are forecast in the Middle East and Africa – 45 of the least developed African countries import at least 30% of the wheat they need from Ukraine and Russia, and 18 of them – even over 50%
There will be a fierce famine in the world because of the war in Ukraine and it will severely affect the poorest and most vulnerable. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in an address.
“The sword of Damocles has hung over the global economy and especially over developing countries. For months, they have been battling the effects of the pandemic – record inflation, rising interest rates and debt traps. And now the place where their bread comes from has been bombed, “he said emotionally.
Guterres recalled that more than half of the world’s supplies of sunflower oil and more than 30% of wheat come from Ukraine and Russia, and Ukraine alone
provides
over 50% of
wheat
of the World Food Program.
“Food, fuel and fertilizer prices have skyrocketed. Supply chains are broken. All this will hit the poorest with full force and will sow the seeds of instability and riots around the world, “said the UN chief.
According to the World Organization, 45 of the least developed African countries import at least 30% of the wheat they need from Ukraine and Russia, and 18 of them – even over 50%. These countries are facing constant crises – before the war in Ukraine there was a pandemic of the coronavirus, as well as climate change and mainly increasing periods of severe droughts, Guterres recalled. According to him, the global addiction to fossil fuels has exposed the world’s energy security, climate and economy to the arbitrariness of geopolitics.
Warnings that, in addition to record inflation, the planet could be hit by fierce famine began to pour in the first days of Russia’s attack on the neighboring country. According to the British magazine The Economist, food prices are currently the highest since the Great Depression. And this can lead to consequences far beyond the immediate area of the conflict.
The American magazine “Time” writes that there are still areas in Ukraine where the land could be cultivated, but this is impossible due to the full
lack of fuel for
agricultural machines
Well-developed Ukrainian agriculture collapsed in a few weeks. In addition to being a major producer of sunflower, wheat, corn and barley, Ukraine is a key exporter of eggs, rye and potatoes, and even cheese, the paper said. For Europe, the warring country is the third or fourth source of agricultural products – 88% of sunflower oil, 41% of rapeseed and 26% of honey come from there. However, the Middle East is even more dependent.
Lebanon, for example, imports 80% of
your wheat from Ukraine
and has now banned all exports in order to preserve them, at least for a time. However, the country has reserves of wheat and flour for only a month, according to Al Jazeera.
At the moment, Russia has stopped all diesel deliveries to Ukrainian ports, and without it tractors and combines cannot work. The quantities still arriving in Ukraine are used for the army. The sowing season is approaching, and farmers say so
no way Yes
come out in the fields,
because they have nothing to load their machines with. In normal years, Europe’s agricultural granary needs 1.5 million tonnes of diesel, and at least 200,000 is needed for spring sowing. However, the main domestic fuel suppliers say they can only fulfill pre-concluded contracts, and not for long. Time commented that this fuel crisis was not only due to the war, but also to the disruption of supply chains due to the pandemic, but has now deepened to the limit.
China, for example, has banned state-owned companies from exporting fuel until the end of the invasion. From Hungary to Indonesia – many other countries around the world have stopped exporting grain and cooking oil for their own consumers – we can explain the protectionism in the situation, which could further complicate the problem of prices and global supplies.
In dozens of countries in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, food shortages due to suspended exports from Ukraine are already a fact, adds the American political website Vox. In 2020, the largest importers of Ukrainian wheat were Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Pakistan, while Russia is a major supplier to sub-Saharan Africa, including Nigeria and Sudan. Yemen is also heavily dependent on Ukrainian wheat imports, and the hunger situation there has been dramatic for years due to its own internal strife – a population of over 30 million, including many children, and suffering from malnutrition. In Nigeria, 55 million people – more than the entire population of Ukraine – have a hard time finding something to eat. Due to the increase in prices, these and many other countries will face a complete catastrophe and it is very likely that hunger riots will break out there, humanitarian organizations warn.
Many countries in the Middle East have already resorted to the introduction of
limit of
sales
of flour
in the store network. Others like Lebanon, Egypt and Syria are in a real consumer panic. In Egypt (the country imports 75% of its wheat from Ukraine), the price of bread, called by the local word for life and existence, has always had a political dimension. In 2011, this word was chanted at all the protests during the Arab Spring.
In Lebanon last month, Economy Minister Amin Salam asked the United States, Canada and India for grain donations and discounts on purchases. At the same time, the people of the country stockpile large quantities of bread, which they store in freezers. Bakers complain that in the last two weeks they have received only one-fifth of the flour they have claimed, according to a report in the Washington Post. In the Syrian capital, Damascus, sunflower oil and other vegetable fats have completely disappeared from store shelves. Currently, yellow bottles can only be found on the black market. In recent years, the war-torn country has relied almost entirely on imports of wheat and corn from Russia.
Various sources point out that because of the conflict in Ukraine
the number of hungry people in the world can
reaches half a billion people
at just over 270 million before the conflict, in other words, to double. According to the Washington Post, which cites the latest forecasts of the World Food and Agriculture Organization, the prices of basic products may rise by another 22% above the previously raised levels. This level of inflation is already approaching the global food crisis of 2007-2008, when there was a combination of a major drought, rising biofuel prices and increased trade protectionism.
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