Nov 14, 2023 at 12:07 p.m
The official climate plans that 195 countries have submitted to the United Nations (UN) are still insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. According to the UN, “baby steps” are being taken, but big steps are needed.
With current plans, CO2 emissions in 2030 will be 8.8 percent higher than in 2010, according to a report published by the UN climate agency on Tuesday. That is a slightly better score than was reported last year: when the increase was estimated at 10.6 percent. In the meantime, twenty countries have submitted new climate plans to the UN.
“This report shows that governments are taking baby steps together to avert the climate crisis,” said UN climate chief Simon Stiell. But that is not enough: at the climate summit that starts later this month in Dubai, he says countries will have to promise “bold steps forward”.
This year the summit is all about the so-called Global Stocktake, a five-year inventory of progress towards global climate goals. The Paris Agreement agreed to limit warming to well below 2 degrees and preferably 1.5 degrees by the year 2100.
All countries must submit an update of their climate plans to the UN by 2025 at the latest. Agreements must be made in Dubai to ensure that these plans become ambitious, according to Stiell.
Emissions peak in sight, but hardly any decline
To maintain the 1.5 degree target, global greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 43 percent between 2019 and 2030, according to the latest calculations by the UN climate panel IPCC. The new UN report predicts a decline of only 2 percent during that period. It means that CO2 emissions are likely to peak this decade. But there has not yet been a sharp decline after that peak.
The climate summit in Dubai must therefore be a “historic turning point” for the climate, says chairman Sultan Al Jaber of the summit. He is also director of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company, a fact that has led to a lot of criticism. According to many environmental groups, a climate summit under his leadership is not credible.
It is certain that the use of fossil fuels will become an important agenda item at the climate summit. The EU and some other countries want the summit to agree to phase out the use of all fossil fuels. But for many countries that is still a bridge too far.
2023-11-14 11:07:41
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