Ukrainians have already achieved their target

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  Wessel de Jong

  a journalist

The Ukrainian invasion of Russia’s Kursk region is more uncertain than clear. The Supreme Commander of Ukraine still does not comment on what the Ukrainian soldiers are doing, let alone what they plan to do. Last Tuesday they crossed the Russian border and are now said to be in control of around eleven towns.

There is plenty of speculation about the future of the leadership of the Ukrainian army. Sergei Soemlenny, director of the European Stability Initiative Center, writes on X that “Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to covertly prepare a large-scale operation.”

Former army chief Mart de Kruif broadly agrees with this analysis. He talks about “offensive action with a limited objective”. The former general believes that the goal has already been achieved.

De Kruif would therefore not be surprised if the Ukrainians are already engaged in an organized retreat. “If they stay longer, they will be bombed by the entire Russian air force. They are not going to fight to the death there.”

What then is the importance of such a vaccination campaign? Soemlenny says that the Ukrainian army is a ‘morale boost required. De Kruif thinks so too. “It’s just earth to kill. They had to do some offensive work. The psychological effect of this is very important.”

The former general, who was in charge of ISAF, the Western troops in Afghanistan, believes that it was a well-prepared operation, including a false plan, in which the Ukrainians, according to him, a small brigade in addition to aircraft. About a thousand Ukrainian soldiers would take part in the advance.

So the attack near the town of Soedzha is about more than morale, De Kruif accepts. “The Russians are very surprised and now they have to think about where they are using their reserves, while they are now throwing everything at the Donbas. “

The focus of the Russian military effort is now on the town of Pokrovsk in the Donbas, an important logistical support point for the Ukrainians, which the Russians have now come within twenty kilometers. “The Russians now have to consider whether they can hold such a gathering near Pokrovsk,” Soemlenny also says.

“The Russians had the initiative until now and that has given them too much confidence.” According to a former ISAF commander, the Ukrainians have now punished this attitude. “The use of resources means options , because the movement of reserves takes time.” In other words: the Russians must now spread their troops across the long front line.

The Ukrainians faced this problem in the middle of May, when the Russians suddenly attacked the city of Kharkiv. The high command in Kyiv then had to rush to send valuable resources to Kharkiv.

According to both De Kruif and Soemlenny, the Russians are now getting a taste of their own medicine. “This makes perfect sense, from a military point of view,” says de Kruif.

The Ukrainians are doing it now, De Kruif believes, because they are convinced that the big Russian summer offensive will not happen again and that the Russians have less and less power – for now.

The reduced strength of the enemy would free the Ukrainians to use some of their resources for an attack.

The former general also does not insist that the attack is designed as a ‘finger exercise’ for a large-scale operation, together with the air force. “I think there will be more attacks of this type. “