Ukrainians expect a new Russian offensive, but when?

• Wessel de Young

  journalist, now in Ukraine

The Russians will try again, a ground attack on the Ukrainian capital Kiev. Almost all Ukrainians are convinced of this – from the first subway student to the commander-in-chief of the army.

“I have no doubt that they want to go back to Kiev,” General Valery Zaluzhny told the British magazine The Economist this week. The commander-in-chief’s statement made wide headlines in Ukrainian news. Others also expect a new Russian offensive, but expectations differ on how and when.

As soon as the ground freezes, the Russians will attack, expects General Sergey Melnik, commander of the Kharkov military district in the east of the country. In addition to an attack on Kiev, he also expects his city to face another ground offensive. Groups of ten or twenty Russian soldiers are already crossing the border for reconnaissance and sabotage, he says. Kharkov is about forty kilometers from the Russian border.

As in February this year, according to Melnik, the Russians will try to isolate Kharkov from Kiev so that Ukrainian troops in the Donbass cannot move west to help the capital. The Russians will also attack further west towards a city like Rivne, which is located between Kiev and the Polish border. The goal would be to cut off the supply of Western weapons.

President Putin is mustering more than 200,000 soldiers for the next round of the war. This is the number that the Ukrainian commander-in-chief mentions in The Economist. Melnik thinks there could be many more.

They will be badly armed and undertrained, like many of the recently mobilized soldiers. What Russians themselves openly admit is evident from their use of the language. Russian commanders talk about “single-use soldiers” (odnorazovye), General Melnik knows this.

Due to their sheer numbers, General Zaluzhny sees the Russians as a formidable opponent. “We’ll have to kill them all.”

Oleg Zhdanov, an independent military analyst and former member of the Ukrainian General Staff, doesn’t think there will be an immediate attack once the ground is frozen enough to support the tanks. “You must have something to attack with.”

Zdanov is resolute. The Russians are currently unable to launch a full-scale offensive. According to him, Russia’s defense lacks everything, especially high-tech weapons.

“Stalin said quantity is more important than quality. Putin is trying to imitate him,” Zhdanov says. The results of this approach can be seen in the Donbass, in the bloody fighting around the city of Bachmut. Melnik: “Soldiers are running, covered in pills, without helmets, without vests.” The front line is barely moving there.

Zhdanov estimates the number of Russian soldiers on the Belarusian border at 10,000 who could move towards Kiev. He’s not worried about that. Also because the Belarusian army will not participate, for the simple reason that it has handed over all its weapons to the Russians.

The former colonel thinks the Ukrainian military should start paying attention when numbers reach 50,000-70,000. And then they must be well equipped. It won’t work in January, Zdanov is sure of that. “More realistic is March or even spring.”

The military analyst does not want to compromise Zaluzhny’s alarming words. But he thinks the interview is meant for Western consumption. “Because we all know it.”

According to him, the interview with The Economist is mainly aimed at urging European leaders to speed up the delivery of arms. And above all more. “Because as Christmas approaches you see the pace slowing down.”

With weapons now arriving from Europe, the war will last a long time, Zdanov says. “It’s enough to hold on, but not enough to win fast.”