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The possibility of an invasion of Ukraine from Belarus is very high, and the first echelon of about 5,000 has already been formed.
This was announced on air TSN special services representative, Major General Viktor Yagunov.
He also noted that there is a reserve – also 5 thousand, which can be introduced by the second wave. Another 10 thousand can enter the 3rd and 4th wave. The total number of the Belarusian army is 45 thousand, but only these 20 thousand can theoretically participate. He is convinced that this will be a rear reserve, providing logistics, protecting the rear …
Yagunov noted that despite the fact that the army of Belarus has not crossed the border, it is already participating in the war. He also noted that Lukashenka still hesitates to openly invade, because he understands that if coffins go from Ukraine to Belarus, no riot police will save him. But he has the entire top military in completely controlled Russia, so he understands that he no longer controls his troops.
The special officer assures that the aggressors plan to go in two directions in order to seize the Rivne nuclear power plant and try to cut off the Warsaw road, and then Chop-Kyiv, so that support from Europe does not go to Ukraine. But he is convinced that “the wishes of Putin and Lukashenko remain only wishes.” He noted that the combat effectiveness of the Belarusians is very low, there is some number that trained to participate in peacekeeping missions. The only place where they were was in Kazakhstan and their training, which was mocked, was clearly visible there. In addition, the troops have very low motivation to fight on the territory of Ukraine. There is evidence that among those who are ready to be thrown into battle, there is a desire to go over to the side of Ukraine, or to surrender if they cross the border.
“Belarusians will not reach their goal and will be destroyed, this is beyond doubt,” Yagunov added.
He noted that in Russia there are problems with the troops, so it is impossible to consider the option that the movement on the border is solely for distraction. But another obstacle may be that the Belarusians will have to circumvent the norms of the Constitution, which states that their troops cannot fight on the territories of other states.
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