© Reuters Huge consumption of aid for Ukrainian military equipment
November 27 Associated Press News (Edited by Shi Zhengcheng)According to Western media reports over the weekend, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its 10th month, the US-led NATO front is having trouble replenishing Ukraine’s arsenals: ammunition is being used up too quickly. There are various indications thatThe ability to supply weapons will become a key factor in the next phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war of attrition。
NATO officials likened the fact that during the war in Afghanistan, NATO troops fired about 300 rounds of shells a day and at the same time did not have to worry about air defense. But besides destroying thousands of shells every day, the Ukrainian army is also under pressure from the Russian aviation.
Camille Grand, a defense expert at the Council of Europe’s Foreign Relations Committee, described,Ukraine can consume more in a day than Afghanistan in a month. Grand was until recently NATO’s Deputy Secretary General for Defense Investment.
Weapons production capacity cannot keep up
Senior NATO officials revealed that during the Battle of Donbass, Ukrainian artillery fired 6,000-7,000 rounds per day, while Russia’s artillery could reach 40,000-50,000 rounds per day. For comparison, the production capacity of American shells is about 15,000 rounds per month.
More importantly, there is a large number of Soviet-era equipment on the Ukrainian military’s “demand list”, including T72 tanks, S-300 anti-aircraft missiles and artillery shells adapted to the caliber of Soviet equipment. After more than six months of attrition on the Ukrainian front, stock levels of these older items are becoming precarious.
At the same time, in the face of the long war of attrition, even the most expensive anti-aircraft missiles and single “Javelin” missiles on the Western military aid list have started to run out. NATO is trying to produce some old state-of-the-art equipment for the emergency.Many governments have signaled to the military industry to hire more shifts and restart old production lines. These arms requests are also starting to spill over to industries in South Korea and other countries.
It is reported that NATO has even considered investing in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria to restart production of 152 and 122 caliber shells suitable for Ukrainian artillery.
To complicate matters further, theThe military industry within NATO has very strong regional characteristics. For NATO countries, their own military equipment rarely fits shells produced by other NATO countries, which also means that equipment manufacturers can continue to sell shells. At the same time, many NATO countries also have legal restrictions on the transfer of weapons: for example, Switzerland refuses to transfer German-made anti-aircraft ammunition to Ukraine.
This situation also makes the state of equipment of the Ukrainian army extremely heterogeneous. NATO officials once referred to Ukraine’s weapons systems as the “Weapon Zoo“, referring to the fact that the Ukrainian army has the German “Cheetah” anti-aircraft tank and the French “Sidewinder” surface-to-air missile system. The supply and maintenance of ammunition for these weapons is increasingly becoming a problem.
NATO supply also has problems
NATO has required member states to increase military spending to 2% of GDP by 2024, with at least 20% of funds spent on equipment.
NATO officials have revealed that when the conflict erupted in February this year,Arms stockpiles in many countries are less than half of ideal levelsAt the same time, the progress of common weapons between countries is not smooth. Even without considering the United States, joint development of weapons and equipment among EU member states accounted for only 18% of the total.
What is even more embarrassing is that after more than six months of consumption, the arsenals of NATO countries are also in a state of emergency. After the conflict escalated, France sent at least 18 Caesar self-propelled artillery systems to Ukraine, amounting to 20% of the country’s artillery systems in stock, so it is now reluctant to supply more weapons.
An EU-wide compensation fund of €3.1 billion has been set up for member states helping Ukraine with arms, but by now almost 90% of the money has been used. At the NATO level, member states have supplied Ukraine with 40 billion euros worth of weapons, which is close to France’s annual military spending.
According to NATO officials,Currently, almost 20 of the 30 Member States have no spare capacity, mainly some small countries. Other major countries such as Germany, France and Italy have the potential to supply additional equipment. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed to countries that NATO’s inventory level guidance should not be a constraint on aid to Ukraine. But the US, France and Germany also deliberately control the level of equipment of the Ukrainian army,Prevent NATO weapons from directly hitting the Russian mainland.
At least for the moment, a variety of weapons and equipment that the Ukrainian military has always wanted have not entered the list of military aid, including long-range surface-to-surface missile systems, fighter planes and tanks from Western and more advanced countries air defense missile systems.
Even with such restrictions, the use of some weapons by Ukraine still worries NATO. For example, to attack the Russian position of Snake Island 50 kilometers from the front line, the Ukrainian army installed French artillery tug Caesar with a range of 40 kilometers on the tug and drove it 10. This operation it also shocked the French army. The Ukrainian military has also launched attacks on Russian naval vessels by modifying drones.
As for the United States, which has always stressed that “military aid will not stop”, they too are consideringSupply Ukraine with cheaper weapons, such as the Dow anti-tank missiles, which are available in large quantities, rather than the more expensive Javelin missiles. At the same time, the US military is also urging Ukraine to “calculate the economic accounts”.Don’t hit Russia’s $20,000 drone with a $150,000 air defense missile。
Mark F. Cancian, a former White House equipment strategy analyst, told the media that for the US weapons inventory, the current inventory of 155-caliber rounds, guided missiles and launchers, and self-propelled artillery is in a “very limited” state. Among them, the shortage of 155-caliber bullets is the most worrying factor for politicians, because the production capacity of this bullet,It often takes four to five years to improve materially。
