Ukrainian intelligence believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin has not given up on his original goal of capturing Kyiv and Odessa. It writes Bloomberg.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Russian forces tried to capture Kyiv but failed.
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Palle Ydstebø, head of the land power section at the War College at the Norwegian Armed Forces College, is clear that Russia does not have the combat power needed to reach Kyiv and Odessa in the short term.
– If they are to succeed in conquering Kyiv, Odessa or the rest of Ukraine, they must build up completely different capacities than they have now. They have to set up, educate and train large army units consisting of several tens of brigades under divisional and corps commands, he tells ABC Nyheter.
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– It will get even worse
According to Ydstebø, it takes months and years to educate and train such departments.
– Even with a mobilization of Russian war industry, it will take several years to produce material for it. In addition, they must be able to fight for air superiority in the operational area, he says.
Recently, Ukraine has claimed to have shot down a number of Russian fighter jets.
– It gets even worse with the relatively few combat aircraft Russia has at its disposal. Ukraine’s air defenses have recently proven to be very effective at shooting down Russian planes from a long distance, and are even more effective over their own territory, says Ydstebø.
– Will not acquire air supremacy
Before Christmas Putin said that Odessa is a Russian city.
Palle Ydstebø believes it is impossible for Russia to reach Kyiv or Odessa as the situation is now. Photo: NTB
As long as Ukraine receives support from Western countries, Russian industry will not be able to produce and renovate enough material to equip the departments Russia needs to fight its way to Kyiv and Odessa, explains Ydstebø.
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– Nor will they be able to acquire air supremacy to make such operations possible. When Ukraine can operate F-16s with long-range missiles, it doesn’t get any easier. The only way Russia can achieve such goals is for the West to fold and leave Ukraine to be conquered and subjugated to Russia, he states.
2024-03-02 06:59:45
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