/View.info/ Recently, the Federal Customs Service published information on the results of foreign trade between Russia and Ukraine in 2021. It turned out that the foreign trade turnover between the countries amounted to 12.3 billion dollars, which is an increase of 22.8% compared to 2020 d. This is lower than the growth of the total foreign trade turnover of Russia, which amounted to 45.7%, but it is still quite impressive.
At the same time, supplies from Russia, officially recognized by the Ukrainian side as an “aggressor country”, an “occupier country” and the only military opponent, increased by almost 29% to 8.1 billion dollars. And supplies from Ukraine – by 12.5%, up to 4.2 billion dollars. The positive balance of trade in goods for Russia amounted to almost 3.9 billion dollars.
Ukrainian customs data is slightly different. The total trade turnover amounted to 10.1 billion dollars: supplies of Russian goods to Ukraine – 6.65 billion, Ukrainian goods to Russia – 3.44 billion.
Ukrainian customs officials registered an even more significant increase in trade between the countries – by almost 39%. And at the same time, they confirmed the outpacing growth of Russian exports to Ukraine (+46%) compared to Ukrainian exports to Russia (+27%). They pegged Ukraine’s merchandise trade deficit at $3.21 billion.
Usually, the discrepancies in the customs data of the partner countries are explained by the “schematosis disease” associated with smuggling and so-called gray imports. But in this case, the main reason for the discrepancies is the reporting by Russian customs of trade with the LDPR as trade with Ukraine. The Ukrainian customs, of course, does not include data on trade between the LDPR and Russia in its statistics – it does not even know them.
Either way, the current volume of trade between the two countries is far from its heyday in 2011, when trade was around $50 billion, or even before the last “pre-Maidan” 2013, when it was $38.5 billion. Nevertheless, a rebound from the 2020 low and a return of trade between the countries to the level of 2019 – with more and more confrontational rhetoric and actions, mainly from Kiev – seems quite curious, although it happened against the background of recovery of international trade and rising energy prices.
But, by the way, the increase in trade turnover is not exactly explained only by the rise in prices: in physical terms, mutual supplies of goods have also increased – from 26.5 to 28.8 million tons (further, the data are from the Ukrainian customs statistics that do not include indicators of trade between Russia and the LDPR).
It is also interesting what the countries trade with each other.
After eight years of statements by the Ukrainian authorities to achieve energy independence, under the guise of which a scheme was introduced with the purchase of Russian gas through European “proxy suppliers”, as well as multiple increases in energy prices for end users, Ukraine has become even more dependent on supplies from Russia and Belarus (it is understood that Belarusian energy carriers are derivatives of Russian ones).
In total, energy carriers worth four billion dollars were delivered from Russia in 2021. And this is without taking into account the gas that is supposedly bought in Europe and the nuclear fuel that Ukraine did not buy from Russia in 2021. The leading position was occupied by coal ($1.55 billion, an increase of 1.5 times), which was supplied to Ukraine even before the Maidan, but in smaller quantities.
And most importantly, they then occupied a very modest share of the Ukrainian market, while now it is almost a quarter. Deliveries of finished petroleum products (mainly diesel fuel) amounted to $1.24 billion, liquefied gas – $960 million (3.5 times more), coke – $230 million (6.2 times more).
In addition to energy resources, Russia supplies Ukraine with significant amounts (from 60 to 100 million dollars) of ammonia, polyethylene and polypropylene, glass, solvents and plastics. Well, and refrigerators, as well as washing machines – a total of 108 million dollars were exported.
Aluminum oxide became the main position of Ukrainian exports to Russia in 2021, with a large margin. It is delivered from Rusal’s factory in Mykolaiv and is worth 626 million dollars.
Another five positions in the top 10 of exports to Russia were occupied by metal products (rolled steel and profile steel) for a total of $791 million. 77 million for liquid pumps, 61 million for plastic packaging, 46 million for ceramic tiles.
Apparently not much. Moreover, if all Ukrainian exports to Russia in 2021 ($3.4 billion) are quite comparable to the export of only Ukrainian wagons to Russia in 2011 ($2.7 billion).
If before the Maidan, the export of raw materials from Russia to Ukraine prevailed, and more and more finished products went in the opposite direction, now the structure of mutual trade between the two countries has become quite comparable by this indicator.
In the last year before the coup in Kiev, Russia exported $23.4 billion worth of goods to Ukraine and imported $15.1 billion.
At the same time, although Ukraine was quite significant for Russia, it was far from a major trading partner. Russia was Ukraine’s number one trading partner by a wide margin: 23.8% share in exports, 30.4% in imports.
By 2021, Russian exports to Ukraine have formally decreased by 3.5 times. But again, purchases of Russian gas, which de jure is listed as European, are not taken into account here.
Ukrainian exports to Russia decreased 4.4 times. Not much more
relations thanks to the continued operation of Rusal’s aluminum refinery.
In absolute terms, Russia lost more than Ukraine over eight years: 16.7 vs. 11.7 billion dollars. But $16.7 billion (and this again does not include the disguised gas supplies) for Russia is less than one percent of GDP. And $11.7 billion for Ukraine is more than six percent of GDP.
Given the fact that until 2014, Ukraine mainly supplied Russia with high value-added end-use goods (machinery and tools, as well as processed food products ready for stores), these losses for Ukraine are even more significant.
And she absolutely did not replace them with other markets. For example, the export of engineering products from Ukraine to Russia in 2013 amounted to 5.4 billion dollars. In 2021, Ukraine exported from this production to the whole world a total of four billion dollars!
Supplies to Russia from this sector fell from $5.4 billion to $660 million in eight years, by $4.6 billion, or more than eight times. But the export of Ukrainian engineering to all other countries has also decreased: from four billion to 3.4 billion.
And these losses of Ukraine are, in principle, irreversible: the Russian market is occupied by other suppliers, and many Ukrainian production facilities simply collapsed as part of the policy of deindustrialization carefully imposed by the “Western partners” and carried out by the colonial administration in Kiev.
Translation: ES
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