Ukrainian forces “destroyed the most powerful units of the Russian army” in the recent battle of Bakhmut on the eastern battlefield, said Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Shirsky.
In a video released online on the 2nd, Commander-in-Chief Sirski told soldiers, “We continue to firmly defend Bahmut despite all predictions and advice (that Ukraine will retreat).”
However, it did not specifically name the Russian units that suffered losses.
This message from Commander-in-Chief Sirsky came a day after the US declared that “Russia’s offensive in Donbass (eastern Ukraine) centered on Bahmut has failed.”
White House National Security Council (NSC) Strategic Communications Coordinator John Kirby told reporters the day before (the 1st) that “Russia (for a while) has not been able to occupy any real strategic and important areas.”
See also: “100,000 casualties of Russian troops in the last 5 months”…White House “provides 100% of weapons necessary for Ukrainian counterattack”
■ ‘Great Counterattack’ Imminent Suggestions
On the other hand, Commander-in-Chief Shirsky revealed that the destruction of the Russian army’s strongest force was related to the preparation process for the ‘Spring Counterattack’.
In a video released on the 2nd, Commander-in-Chief Shirsky said, “By defeating the Russian army, we are giving ourselves a chance,” adding, “We are preparing for further action.”
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikow said in an online briefing on the 28th of last month that “we will start when the commander’s decision is made” regarding the timing of the launch of the counterattack.
See also: Ukraine Defense Minister “Ready for a counterattack against Russia”…”If the commander decides, we will launch”
The next day, on the 29th of last month, an oil storage tank exploded in an air raid by an unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) in Sevastopol, Crimea, where the Russian Black Sea Fleet headquarters is located.
The Southern Command of the Ukrainian Army admitted the attack and said it was “preparing for a counterattack”.
See also: Ukraine admits “We did attack on Black Sea Fleet Command”…Russian Ministry of Defense dismisses Deputy Minister of Logistics for ‘Mariupol Butcher’
Immediately after the incident, the Ukrainian military authorities claimed that “a total of 400,000 tons of oil smoked and disappeared into the air is enough to paralyze the combat power of the Russian army for a while.”
■ USA “100% of what you ask for”
Ukraine has been preparing for a major counteroffensive since last winter to break through the stagnant front and regain territories occupied by Russia.
The United States and major Western countries have been swiftly supplying supplies needed for a counterattack, including tanks, armored vehicles, field artillery, and ammunition.
Christopher Cavoli, commander of the U.S. European Command, appeared before the House Armed Services Committee on the 26th of last month and said he was “very confident” that Ukrainian forces would not suffer from a lack of weapons or equipment.
“We are sending it (weapons, equipment),” he added.
Kirby, NSC Strategic Communications Coordinator at the White House, said on the 1st that “Ukraine has provided almost 100% of what it requested (weapons and equipment) in relation to the offensive operation it wants to carry out in the spring.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would launch a counterattack even without additional support, including F-16 fighter jets.
■ Watershed in the overall direction of the war
It is understood that Russia is preparing to respond by predicting the path of Ukraine’s counterattack.
Therefore, it seems that the upcoming confrontation between the two sides will be a turning point that will determine the course of the entire war.
See also: Ukrainian counteroffensive-Russian defense readiness captured by satellite… US European commander “Russian ground forces are more than at the beginning of the war”
The situation that will unfold after the counterattack can be largely predicted in three ways.
First, if Ukraine succeeds in a counterattack, it will continue to advance eastward to regain the Russian occupied territory, and seize the opportunity to recover pro-Russian-held areas such as Donetsk and Luhansk.
Then the United States can draw additional military aid from Western countries, and Ukraine will take the overall lead in this war.
It was reported in early March that the United States is bringing Ukrainian pilots to Arizona for simulation training on the operation of F-16 fighter jets.
However, until now, about two months later, the decision to support F-16 has not been officially announced.
SEE ALSO: Ukrainian pilots in simulation training in the US…will support F-16 fighter jets
If Ukraine makes a notable performance in this counteroffensive, support for the latest equipment, including F-16 fighter jets, is expected to accelerate.
However, there is a possibility that Russia, driven into a corner, may retaliate with a localized nuclear weapon provocation or an asymmetric tactic that explodes ‘dirty bombs’ everywhere and causes widespread radioactive contamination.
■ Critical blow when Ukraine is defeated
On the other hand, if the counterattack fails, Ukraine’s morale will suffer greatly along with waste of support materials. In the future, support from the international community may also cool down.
After that, military aid from Western countries could be reduced, and the Zelensky government, which aims to recapture the occupied territories, could suffer a serious blow.
See also: Zelensky “Preparation for a great counterattack, victory in the war will come closer”…Establishment of positions east of the Dnipro River Armed with modern tanks
On the other hand, Russia is likely to drive the momentum of defeating Ukraine’s counterattack, connect the eastern and southern occupied areas, and then advance to Transnistria, a pro-Russian region of neighboring Moldova.
In this case, Ukraine becomes a landlocked country cut off from the Black Sea.
Major cities in Ukraine and neighboring countries (click to enlarge)
And another conflict could escalate in Moldova.
In the spring of last year, at the beginning of the war, Russian commanders publicly announced plans to advance on Moldova.
See also: Russian troops plan to advance in Moldova…Meeting between UN Secretary-General Guterres and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 26th
■ Pressure for armistice negotiations in the event of a ‘draw’
The third and last scenario is when the war situation does not change significantly even after a counterattack, and Ukraine and Russia’s forces continue their confrontation with air strikes and local battles as they are now.
This war could then enter a stalemate, and pressure from the international community to negotiate a ceasefire or ceasefire could increase.
This is VOA News Jongsu Oh.
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2023-05-02 14:45:00
