Ukrainian Deputy Head of Intelligence Warns War Cannot Be Won on Battlefield, Urges Negotiations

The Deputy Head of the Central Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Vadim Skibitsky said that he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war only on the battlefield. He believes that such wars can only end with treaties.

Source: Skibitsky in an interview The Economist

Details: Even if Ukraine could push Russian troops back to its borders, an increasingly distant prospect, that would not end the war, he said.

Skibitsky noted that both sides are now trying to take an “advantageous position” ahead of possible negotiations. But meaningful talks may not begin until the second half of 2025, he believes.

By then, there will be very bad winds against Russia. Russia’s military production capacity has expanded but will reach a plateau in early 2026 due to material and engineer shortages.

Both sides could run out of weapons. But if nothing changes in other aspects, Ukraine will be the first to run out of weapons.

Skibitsky says Europe is the biggest unknown factor in the war. Unless Ukraine’s neighbors find a way to increase defense production to help Ukraine, they too will end up in Russia’s crosshairs.

It disregards the importance of Article 5 to the common defense of NATO and even the presence of NATO troops in countries adjacent to Ukraine. This article may, in his opinion, not be very important in practice.

Direct speech Skibitsky: “The Russians will capture the Baltic states in seven days and NATO’s reaction time is ten days.

More details: He also noted that Ukraine’s bravery and sacrifice had given Europe a multi-year head start, eliminating the immediate threat from Russia’s air and sea forces that were once feared for co- at least ten years.

Now, according to Skibitsky, the question is whether Europe will reward this by leaving Ukraine in the game: “We will continue to fight […] depends not only on us.”