Eastern Warfront Bahmut’s fall imminent?
Ukrainian Army “The situation is not good”… augmentation
Russian forces encircle the city on three sides
Ukrainian troops’ strategic withdrawal theory
Fighting is intensifying in Bakhmut, an important city in the southeast Donetsk province, where Russia and Ukraine have been fighting for nearly seven months. While the Russian army has already surrounded Bahmut on three sides, Ukraine has increased its reinforcements, but as the war of attrition prolongs, there are rumors of a “strategic withdrawal” of the Ukrainian army.
According to foreign media such as Reuters on the 2nd (local time), Russian forces are encircling three sides of the outskirts of Bahmut except for the west. Bahmut, which had a population of 70,000 before the war, is said to have had about 4,500 people left, including 48 children, while most of the humanitarian relief efforts were blocked.
The Ukrainian side acknowledged that the Bahmut gunnery was getting increasingly difficult, but said it was not giving up on the city, such as by sending reinforcements. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hannah Malyar appeared on a national TV show on the night of the 1st and said that reinforcements had been sent to Bakhmut, but she did not explain the size or mission of the increased reinforcements.
Colonel Yuriy Madyar, commander of the Ukrainian 28th Mechanized Brigade, said in a Telegram video message that “Bahmut is holding out now,” and that the cost of defending the city is getting higher and more difficult.
Yevgeny Prigozhin of the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary group that is leading the attack on Bahmut, also reported through a Telegram voice message on the same day that “the Ukrainian army is sending additional troops to Bahmut,” and that the fighting is “fierce.”
Russia claims that the capture of Bakhmut will allow it to completely occupy the Donbass region, one of its targets for invasion of Ukraine. Military experts, however, believe that while the capture of Bahmut could provide Russia with a tactical advantage, it would not be decisive for the outcome of the war.
The war of attrition, which has resulted in numerous casualties for several months, continues, and the Ukrainian military’s strategic retreat is being discussed. Fighting here began about seven months ago, but in recent weeks the Russians have tightened the siege, leaving only the western retreat for the Ukrainians.
“I think we will have to leave Bahmut sooner or later,” said Serhiy Rachmanin, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, on the radio. He wants to inflict losses on as many Russian troops as possible and let Russia waste ammunition and resources.” Malyaar said the current decision to defend Bahmut was made “strategic” and not “political”, saying Russia had superior numbers but was suffering significant losses.
For the past three months, Ukraine has largely focused on a defensive strategy that drains Russia’s forces. Ukraine’s strategy is to damage Russia’s military power as much as possible until the arrival of heavy weapons such as tanks that the West has promised to provide.
“Winter is over,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address to the nation that day. “It was a really difficult time and all Ukrainians suffered. But we were able to supply Ukraine with energy and heating.”
In his speech the previous day, President Zelensky said that the situation in Bahmut is still the most difficult, saying, “The intensity of the battle continues to grow. We are preparing for the return of our warriors for operations to liberate our homeland.”
Meanwhile, Russian forces fired missiles at an apartment in the southern city of Zaporizhia on the night of the 1st, killing two civilians, and rescuers are searching for survivors in the rubble, said acting mayor Anatoly Kurtev of Zaporizhia.
