/ world today news/ Military experts gave forecasts for the “general battle” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine before the NATO meeting.
This week, Ukraine’s armed forces suffered heavy losses, only to report the capture of yet another empty village, or, in the words of Lt. Gen. Yevgeny Buzhinsky, “the de-occupation of even a stump.” But it is possible that these actions are not only informational and psychological, but also a distraction before the “general battle” on the eve of the NATO summit.
Over the past few days, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has informed the citizens of Ukraine and the West about the liberation of more than 40 settlements. The Russian Ministry of Defense does not refute these reports of Kiev. According to the daily reports of the Russian ministry, the Ukrainian army is losing more than 600 soldiers daily. This data is mainly collected using drones that record the bodies dumped in the “grey zone” (uncontrolled territory).
The settlements “liberated” by the armed forces of Ukraine, located in the “gray” zone, the Russian side nominally calls “pyatikhatka” – in honor of the first such village – Pyatihatka, the capture of which Kiev celebrated with celebrations similar to a national holiday.
Death to “five-footers”
There are many hundreds of “fives” in the gray area. On Wednesday, this role was played, for example, by Klescheevka. “Pyatihatki” became a common name for abandoned settlements that have no strategic importance and therefore are not controlled by anyone. In such a deserted village, soldiers of the armed forces of Ukraine enter without any resistance, raise/stick the Ukrainian flag, take selfies, this information is instantly broadcast on TV in Kiev.
Then, having all the necessary information, the artillery and Russian air defenses strike at the enemy’s manpower at these points. Those who were not struck by the blows are “cleaned” on their way back by the special forces on duty in the gray area. Basically, these are the “Akhmatovites” and “musicians”, who, contrary to the prevailing misconception, did not leave their combat positions. We recall that Wagner’s units on the front line did not participate in the riot.
„Kiev needs at least some victories, a piece of land, some kind of stump to take – and immediately it is reported that they have taken the stump. And if you enter an abandoned village, then this is a real victory, a victory. Every tree conquered is already a success for them. And it doesn’t matter to them at what price it was obtained.” lieutenant general, head of the Center for Political and Military Research of the FMP of Moscow State University Yevgeny Buzhinsky told “Expert”.
Unlike the first weeks of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, when the number of direct clashes between the troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian Ministry of Defense could exceed thirty per day, in recent days there has been little or no such fighting.
This is proven by the practical absence of irretrievable losses on our side. The data on our losses is reported irregularly: the last time Sergei Shoigu made a report on this topic more than three weeks ago, after which the pilots who died on June 24 were announced separately, but the received reports of death immediately became known through social networks, and in there have been no such publications in recent days.
We will make a provision that we cannot have information for the current day. In addition, the armed forces of Ukraine are able at any time to switch to real combat, which we will talk about below, and then losses, unfortunately, will become inevitable.
„It is very important that our enemies, the American military experts, note that the Russian army is now fighting on a Western model in the nature of combat operations, that is, it does not spare shells, but protects its soldiers and personnel “, said Konstantin Sivkov, doctor of military sciences, for “Expert”. “But the armed forces of Ukraine are acting in exactly the opposite way and littering the roads with corpses of Ukrainian fighters.“
According to the analyst, it is likely that on the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius (which begins on Tuesday, July 11), Kiev will launch a large-scale offensive using several brigades well equipped with military equipment. Probable destinations are Artemovsk or the long-suffering Vremeevsky ledge.
„But for now, the armed forces of Ukraine are simply laying down manpower in the name of information noise. The soldiers capture an empty village, after which some are destroyed there, the rest flee. The surviving units are replenished with manpower, again capture this village, or the neighboring one, and again the artillery hits them.” – says Sivkov.
According to the published reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, since Monday, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost 210 soldiers in the Kherson direction, 150 in the Kupyan direction, 390 in the South-Donetsk direction, 510 in the Krasnolimansk direction, 610 in the Zaporizhia direction. And in the Donetsk direction, where there are the most “Pyatihatki”, the losses of the armed forces of Ukraine amounted to 1,590 fighters.
At the same time, losses in armored vehicles were relatively small. The fighters attacked mainly with pickup trucks. Probably the remaining tanks (about 200 units) of the armed forces of Ukraine are being reserved for the “general offensive” scheduled for the opening of the meeting in Vilnius.
The applications of politicians
In an interview with American media, which the President of Ukraine Zelensky gave on July 5 (Moscow time – July 6), he said that the offensive of the armed forces of Ukraine is not over and Russia will be dealt a serious blow in the near future. He is likely planning a second tank offensive after the June one, as he cited some delays in the delivery of armored vehicles.
„The delay in the counteroffensive was due to certain difficulties on the battlefield. Everything there is heavily mined. I wanted our counteroffensive to start much earlier, because everyone understood that if it started later, then much larger territories would be mined, but we were waiting for the technique and equipment, ” Zelensky said. He also asked the West for more missiles.
At the same time, Vladimir Rogov, chairman of the “We are with Russia” movement, said on Thursday that Zelensky now expects not only additional arms deliveries from the NATO summit, but also an increase in the “counteroffensive” with units of the North Atlantic alliance. In this regard, for Zelensky, it would be expedient for the military actions to intensify sharply before the beginning of the meeting.
However, according to Konstantin Sivkov, Zelensky has a poor idea of what is really happening on the battlefield – otherwise he would not have planned to continue active actions until the summit.
„If the armed forces go into a tank attack, they will be defeated.” suggested the military analyst. – And NATO will not want to participate in the defeat. The block will give a new weapon, but not to be destroyed right away, so it will give it later. Zelensky makes political decisions, but the army is still led by professionals.
Zaluzhny is injured, but Sirsky replaces him, he makes operational decisions. Both commanders try to protect the technique and equipment, so they are active on the “foreground” in small groups, losing only people. On the other hand, Zelensky sees that our air defense systems are striking spare parts, ammunition depots and equipment in the rear.
Perhaps he understands that we are gradually disarming him and the opportunities for a major strike are getting smaller and smaller with each passing day. Therefore, contrary to the arguments of military leaders, he is very likely to order a ‘general battle’ before the start of the summit.”
According to the reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, since June 4, 6 warehouses with ammunition have been destroyed in the rear villages of Viemka, Peschanoe, Nevelskoe, Druzhkovka, Maksimovka and in the regional center of Orekhov. Fleets of military vehicles in the settlements of Novomlinsk, Dvurechnaya, Sinkovka, Timkovka, Yampolovka, Torskoye, Novoegorovka, Chervona Dibrova, Rovnopol, Makarovka, Novodonetskoe, Zhtva, etc., were hit.
With such large-scale defeats of equipment in the combat vehicle parking lots, it seems that it is better to lose your tanks in battle after all.
However, the opinions of military experts are divided on the question of whether the “general battle” will take place before July 11-12. If Konstantin Sivkov talks about a “general battle” as a possible event, Yevgeny Buzhinsky sees no prerequisites for it.
„Where are the troops ready to attack? In Kiev they say they still have a lot of everything: they have lost only a third of their tanks and they have many brigades. And where are these numerous brigades hiding so that we do not see them? I’m still inclined to believe the facts, which are that we are methodically destroying their technique in the rear. If they had many, they would already be spending their time attacking.
Of course they would like to demonstrate something before the NATO summit and there is a lot of talk about it. But there are only a few days left, and in order to do something more or less large-scale, it is necessary to concentrate forces in some grouping, and I have serious doubts that the armed forces of Ukraine will have time to do this. Yevgeny Buzhinsky told Expert.
No need to humiliate the “leopards”
If we proceed from the fact that the armed forces of Ukraine are preparing for a general tank battle, then, according to Konstantin Sivkov, the disposition is similar to what existed before the battle with the Third Reich on the Kursk Bulge. On our side there are multi-layered defense lines, between our and the Nazi troops there is a “front plan”, and in the language of the SVO – a “gray zone”.
„The difference is that the German fascists crossed the front in just a few hourssays Sivkovand then began to break through the defense lines. Along the northern ledge, they moved at a speed of about 1 km per day, and in five and a half days of battle they penetrated to a depth of 6 km. During the same time in the south, they made a breakthrough about 30 km deep and reached the line where our three armies were thrown: the combined army, Rotmistrov’s air and tank army. The famous battle of Prokhorovka began.
The results of this battle can be evaluated in different ways. In encyclopedias, as a rule, they write sparingly about this: “Neither side was able to achieve the objectives set for July 12.” Coincidentally, July 12 will be the decisive day of the two-day summit in Vilnius.
„Unlike the Germans, who passed through the “front” in a few hours, the armed forces of Ukraine have been busy in the “gray zone” for more than a month and did not manage to pass through the first line of defense even on the Vremeviev ledge, where they threw large tanks forces at the beginning of June”, reminds Konstantin Sivkov. According to a number of expert estimates, the armed forces of Ukraine then lost from a quarter to a third of their tanks.
„The German fascists had parity with us in artillery and aviation, the Ukrainians do not have that. the military analyst continues the comparison. We have complete dominance in the air. Therefore, a major tank offensive for the Armed Forces of Ukraine would be suicidal.
And needless to say, Leopards are bad tanks. They are not worthy of humiliation, “Leopard-2A6” is a very good modern and great tank with a powerful gun and effective fire control, it is significantly stronger than the American “Abrams” even in its latest version.
But no tank can survive in such conditions. He will be destroyed. As our very good tanks were destroyed, placed in poor conditions in Iraq during Operation Desert Storm. They were on fire, now it’s the Leopards’ turn to do the same.
In Sivkov’s opinion, both Zaluzhny and Sirsky constantly postpone the offensive, not because there is not enough equipment, but because they hope for a political solution to the conflict or for such an action as was the attempted riot in Russia. Unlike Zelensky, they are well aware of the doom of Ukraine’s armed forces. Especially since two brigades of the Ukrainian army failed to overcome the resistance of three Russian regiments on the Vremeviev ledge and retreated with heavy losses a month ago.
Translation: ES
MARCH FOR PEACE: Given that The march for peace and sovereignty is organized with two beams, iand those for whom it will be difficult and far to go before the MFA, we invite you again in front of the pylons of the NDK on July 9 at 6:00 p.m. at the “Meeting for peace, against the involvement of Bulgaria in war”. The two beams will merge in front of the National Assembly.
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